Cardinals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 06, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (48-34) are -165 favorites vs the Cardinals (44-39)
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas (5-6), 2.61 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (8-2), 2.66 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The St. Louis Cardinals (+140) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-165) on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Cardinals vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cardinals are 44-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 43-39 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cardinals+1.5 -140O 9 -120+140
Braves -1.5 +115U 9 +100-165

Cardinals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 56.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+10.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.70 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.10 Units / 59% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 46 of his last 68 games (+26.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 68 games (+17.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 70 games (+16.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+16.40 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 45 of his last 67 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI)

Braves vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Matt Olson 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Michael Harris 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Braves vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Matt Olson 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Michael Harris 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Braves vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Matt Olson 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Michael Harris 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Braves vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Max Fried 5.5 +120 5.5 -165
Miles Mikolas 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 60 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 78 games (+5.40 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 56 games (+21.82 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games (+14.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 49 games (+11.15 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 74 games (+8.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 45-38 against the Run Line (+4.05 Units / 3.76% ROI).

  • 44-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -2.31% ROI
  • 40-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -3.66% ROI
  • 39-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -5.31% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 43-39 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 0.86% ROI).

  • 48-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.72% ROI
  • 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.5% ROI
  • 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -7.97% ROI

Miles Mikolas has allowed an OBP of just .203 (74 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (54/317) against Miles Mikolas this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.

Miles Mikolas has a strikeout rate of just 20% (20 SO in 98 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (7/55) against Miles Mikolas with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.

Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (122 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .574 (402 PA’s) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .680 — 94th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .192 (198 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 84th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .316 (30-for-95) against Max Fried on inside fastballs this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — 17th Percentile.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Cardinals are 37-1 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .920.

The Cardinals are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .895.

The Cardinals are 27-5 (.844) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Cardinals are 6-3 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 19-3 (.864) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .669.

The Braves are just 1-28 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Braves are 22-17 (.564) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.

Cardinals hitters have 188 extra-base hits out of 431 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have 215 extra-base hits out of 503 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .461 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .263 (1,694 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Braves hitters are slugging .745 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

Braves hitters have 220 extra-base hits out of 510 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .465 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Braves hitters have 262 extra-base hits out of 617 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 83 double plays in 626 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 74 of 734 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 202 of 2,153 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Génesis Cabrera (Cardinals): COVID-19, D10
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Johan Oviedo (Cardinals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.