- The Braves (49-34) are -250 favorites vs the Cardinals (44-40)
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Matthew Liberatore (2-1), 5.66 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (4-2), 2.86 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The St. Louis Cardinals (+190) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Cardinals vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cardinals are 44-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 44-39 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 +100 | O 9 +100 | +190 |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | U 9 -120 | -250 |
Cardinals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+11.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.70 Units / 74% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 46 of his last 69 games (+25.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 46 of his last 68 games (+16.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 69 games (+16.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 71 games (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+15.40 Units / 57% ROI)
Braves vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Braves vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Austin Riley | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Dansby Swanson | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Braves vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Duvall | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
Braves vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -145 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 79 games (+4.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 57 games (+22.82 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 33 games (+15.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+12.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 75 games (+9.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 45-39 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 2.43% ROI).
- 44-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -3.2% ROI
- 40-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -4.85% ROI
- 40-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -4.16% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 44-39 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 1.98% ROI).
- 49-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 2.48% ROI
- 41-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -1.75% ROI
- 39-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -6.78% ROI
Matthew Liberatore: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Liberatore has limited playing time.
Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (90 SO in 239 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 35% (45/129) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% (104/367) against Spencer Strider on pitches in the strike zone this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .175 (37-for-212) against Spencer Strider this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 99th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cardinals are 24-16 (.600) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Cardinals are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .890.
The Cardinals are just 11-33 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cardinals are just 1-36 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Braves are 33-5 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 27-17 (.614) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 190 extra-base hits out of 437 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have 217 extra-base hits out of 509 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,902 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .745 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Braves hitters are slugging .515 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Braves hitters have 220 extra-base hits out of 510 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .443 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have walked 74 of 742 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 202 of 2,161 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .170 against Braves pitchers with the shift this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Génesis Cabrera (Cardinals): COVID-19, D10
- Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Johan Oviedo (Cardinals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
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