Cardinals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (49-34) are -250 favorites vs the Cardinals (44-40)
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Matthew Liberatore (2-1), 5.66 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (4-2), 2.86 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The St. Louis Cardinals (+190) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Cardinals vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cardinals are 44-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 44-39 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cardinals+1.5 +100O 9 +100+190
Braves -1.5 -120U 9 -120-250

Cardinals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+11.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.10 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.70 Units / 74% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 46 of his last 69 games (+25.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 46 of his last 68 games (+16.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 69 games (+16.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 71 games (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+15.40 Units / 57% ROI)

Braves vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Duvall 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Austin Riley 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Matt Olson 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Braves vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Duvall 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Austin Riley 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Matt Olson 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Braves vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adam Duvall 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Austin Riley 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Matt Olson 0.5 +100 0.5 -145

Braves vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Strider 7.5 +105 7.5 -145
Matthew Liberatore 3.5 -115 3.5 -120
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 79 games (+4.00 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 57 games (+22.82 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 33 games (+15.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+12.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 75 games (+9.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 45-39 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 2.43% ROI).

  • 44-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -3.2% ROI
  • 40-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -4.85% ROI
  • 40-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -4.16% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 44-39 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 1.98% ROI).

  • 49-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 2.48% ROI
  • 41-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -1.75% ROI
  • 39-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -6.78% ROI

Matthew Liberatore has limited playing time.

Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (90 SO in 239 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has struck out 35% (45/129) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% (104/367) against Spencer Strider on pitches in the strike zone this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .175 (37-for-212) against Spencer Strider this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 99th Percentile.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Cardinals are 24-16 (.600) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Cardinals are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .890.

The Cardinals are just 11-33 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cardinals are just 1-36 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .082.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Braves are 33-5 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 27-17 (.614) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Cardinals hitters have 190 extra-base hits out of 437 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have 217 extra-base hits out of 509 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,902 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Braves hitters are slugging .745 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.

Braves hitters are slugging .515 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Braves hitters have 220 extra-base hits out of 510 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .443 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 74 of 742 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 202 of 2,161 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .170 against Braves pitchers with the shift this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Génesis Cabrera (Cardinals): COVID-19, D10
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Johan Oviedo (Cardinals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.