- The Braves are -350 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The St. Louis Cardinals (+260) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-350) on Thursday, September 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Cardinals vs Braves Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 61-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 71-67 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +2.5 -105 | O 10.5 -115 | +260 |
| Braves | -2.5 -115 | U 10.5 -105 | -350 |
Cardinals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 76.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+16.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Andrew Knizner has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+10.65 Units / 82% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+18.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 38 games (+16.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.45 Units / 46% ROI)
Braves vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Braves vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eddie Rosario | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Braves vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 2.5 +135 | 2.5 -175 |
| Max Fried | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 away games (+8.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 66 away games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 69 games (+6.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.19 Units / 65% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 51 of their last 80 games (+17.39 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 84 of their last 138 games (+15.98 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 80 of their last 138 games (+14.99 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games at home (+9.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 67-72 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -5.48% ROI).
- 61-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.5 Units / -18.11% ROI
- 66-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -4.2% ROI
- 66-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -3.9% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 71-67 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 0.43% ROI).
- 90-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.55 Units / 3.11% ROI
- 73-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 3.7% ROI
- 61-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -19 Units / -12.67% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting .381 (91-for-239) against Adam Wainwright this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .408 (40-for-98) against Adam Wainwright with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .255 — 0 Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has an average fastball velocity of just 86.8 MPH this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — 0 Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has averaged 86.7 MPH on fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — 0 Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (153 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .420 (190 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .723 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OBP of just .223 (359 PA’s) versus the top of the order since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (315/643) against Max Fried with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cardinals are just 3-58 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Cardinals are 26-17 (.605) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 46-12 (.793) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Cardinals are just 45-8 (.849) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Braves are 23-37 (.383) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Braves are 19-7 (.731) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 157-33 (.826) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Braves are 43-34 (.558) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .075 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Cardinals hitters have just 1,811 strikeouts in 8,814 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .734 (3,581 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .334 (2,685 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 24% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 11% over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 3.66 (608.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Daysbel Hernández (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Romero (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Elbow, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Lat, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Guillermo Zuñiga (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Oblique, D10
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