- The Cubs are -120 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The St. Louis Cardinals (+100) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-120) on Thursday, July 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 43-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-46 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -105 | +100 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -115 | -120 |
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 59.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 28 games (+11.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+16.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+15.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+14.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.80 Units / 66% ROI)
Cubs vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
Cubs vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games (+12.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 away games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 46 away games (+6.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 66 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+4.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 36 games at home (+3.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 48-48 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -2.54% ROI).
- 43-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.45 Units / -19.49% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -1.19% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -7.36% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-46 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.29% ROI).
- 45-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -6.33% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.94% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -12.25% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Steven Matz has allowed a slugging percentage of .380 (120 Total Bases / 316 ABs) with two-strikes since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .267 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .228 (72-for-316) against Steven Matz with two-strikes since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .171 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (14/23) against Steven Matz — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Steven Matz has allowed an OBP of .369 (268 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .308 — seventh Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 56% of the time (529/950) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .254 (60 Total Bases / 236 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .411 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (120/185) against Marcus Stroman this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (192/329) against Marcus Stroman this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Cardinals are just 33-5 (.868) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Cardinals are 27-8 (.771) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Cardinals are 50-8 (.862) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Cubs are just 4-37 (.098) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .216.
The Cubs are just 21-29 (.420) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Cubs are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 15-65 (.188) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 327 extra-base hits out of 791 total hits (41%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .733 (3,049 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .785 (2,203 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .440 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Cubs are batting just .294 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .268 (2,046 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Cardinals pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Cardinals pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 57 of 851 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (2,346 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 8% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 13% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Edman (Cardinals): Wrist, D10
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
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