- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The St. Louis Cardinals (+115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-135) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 44-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-47 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -115 | +115 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -105 | -135 |
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 54.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+13.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 37 games (+11.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.80 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+17.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+16.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)
Cubs vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Fermin | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Fermin | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +220 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
Cubs vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Fermin | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
| Jack Flaherty | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
| Justin Steele | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 27 games (+13.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 away games (+10.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 away games (+8.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 67 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+11.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 34 games (+2.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 37 games at home (+2.70 Units / 6% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 49-48 against the Run Line (-2.15 Units / -1.71% ROI).
- 44-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.45 Units / -18.54% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -1.17% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -7.29% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-47 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -1.11% ROI).
- 45-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -7.31% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.91% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -12.12% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .312 (234 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 59% (581/987) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .465 (159 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .315 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 28 of 159 batters (18%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (660/1,430) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (474/977) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (660/1,430) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has located his fastball inside 49% of the time (457/940) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 96th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Cardinals are just 34-5 (.872) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Cardinals are 27-8 (.771) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Cardinals are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Cubs are just 10-13 (.435) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Cubs are just 4-38 (.095) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Cubs are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 15-66 (.185) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .337 (2,203 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cardinals hitters have just 1,570 strikeouts in 7,692 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .743 (7,692 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .293 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Cubs hitters have 620 strikeouts in 2,554 PA’s (24%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .268 (2,071 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have walked 57 of 860 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 13% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.1 MPH (2,401 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 8% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Edman (Cardinals): Wrist, D10
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