- The Cubs are -155 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals vs Cubs Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Cardinals / Cubs TV Channel: ATV
The St. Louis Cardinals (+118) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-140) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
This season, the Cardinals are 47-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 42-45 ATS.
Cardinals vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas 4-5, 4.74 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Colin Rea 5-3, 4.39 ERA
Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -165 | O 10 -120 | +118 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | U 10 +100 | -140 |
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Victor Scott II has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+15.00 Units / 167% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Thomas Saggese has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.70 Units / 119% ROI)
- Thomas Saggese has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Thomas Saggese has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+34.00 Units / 378% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+15.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 games (+10.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 88 games (+6.62 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+6.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 31 away games (+6.10 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 85 games (+13.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 81 games (+12.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.25 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games (+5.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 49-39 against the Run Line (+5.5 Units / 4.62% ROI).
- 47-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 4.72% ROI
- 44-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.1% ROI
- 40-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.4 Units / -8.69% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 42-45 against the Run Line (-3.33 Units / -3.19% ROI).
- 52-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.85 Units / 8.54% ROI
- 44-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.7 Units / 2.84% ROI
- 38-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -10.94% ROI
Cubs vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Cubs vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (CHC) | 3.5 -118 | 3.5 -110 |
| Miles Mikolas (STL) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .307 (104-for-339) against Miles Mikolas’ non-fastballs in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — first Percentile.
Miles Mikolas allowed a slugging percentage of .519 (95 Total Bases / 183 ABs) on low non-fastballs in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .302 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 16% (221/1,347) against Miles Mikolas in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 14% (74/529) against Miles Mikolas in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 19% (240/1,241) against Colin Rea in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .467 (7 GB hits out of 15 GBs) against Colin Rea with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .240 — third Percentile.
Colin Rea had a strikeout rate of just 17% (50/285) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 21% (91/437) against Colin Rea in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 10th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Cardinals are 39-3 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Cardinals are 103-5 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Cardinals are 39-1 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Cardinals are 23-15 (.605) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Cubs are 26-5 (.839) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Cubs are 28-15 (.651) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .549.
The Cubs are 20-6 (.769) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .634.
The Cubs are 52-16 (.765) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 20% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,755 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Cardinals are batting just .219 against division opponents this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cardinals hitters have 44 extra-base hits out of 104 total hits (42%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .804 (1,755 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .234 (202 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cubs hitters are slugging .477 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Cubs have answered-back in 41% of innings after an opponent scores this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Cardinals pitchers put 41% of their swings in play this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 31% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Cubs pitchers over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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