- The Diamondbacks are -120 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on ARID
The St. Louis Cardinals (+100) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) on Tuesday, July 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 45-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 56-45 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -110 | +100 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -110 | -120 |
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 60.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+14.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+13.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 33 games (+11.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+15.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+15.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 45 games (+15.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+13.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 away games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 71 games (+6.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 51 away games (+4.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 100 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 98 games (+7.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+6.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.25 Units / 46% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 51-50 against the Run Line (-2.15 Units / -1.64% ROI).
- 45-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.4 Units / -19.4% ROI
- 50-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.45% ROI
- 46-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -7.87% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 56-45 against the Run Line (+6.4 Units / 5.02% ROI).
- 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 6.67% ROI
- 46-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -7.41% ROI
- 49-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.36% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .224 (74-for-330) against Steven Matz with two-strikes since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .171 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .233 (47-for-202) against Steven Matz with two-strikes this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .174 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (8/28) against Steven Matz on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Steven Matz has allowed a slugging percentage of .381 (77 Total Bases / 202 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .277 — sixth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (180/296) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .159 (24-for-151) against Merrill Kelly’s non-fastballs this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .230 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (65/101) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .107 (8 GB hits out of 75 GBs) against Merrill Kelly with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 96th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cardinals are 27-8 (.771) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 11-4 (.733) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 2-46 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Cardinals are just 34-5 (.872) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Diamondbacks are just 110-12 (.902) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Diamondbacks are just 100-19 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 28-13 (.683) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are just 47-6 (.887) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 40% in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .446 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .338 (2,261 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,722) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,689 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 61 of 893 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have an ERA of 7.48 (83.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.56.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gabriel Moreno (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Nolan Gorman (Cardinals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Edman (Cardinals): Wrist, D10
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