- The Cardinals are -105 favorites vs the Guardians
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Watch the game on FOX
The St. Louis Cardinals (-105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-115) on Saturday, May 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Cardinals vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 23-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 21-29 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +155 | O 8 +100 | -105 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -120 | -115 |
Cardinals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 52.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 away games (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.45 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 48 games (+27.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 47 games (+14.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.60 Units / 50% ROI)
Guardians vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Guardians vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Tanner Bibee | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+5.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.65 Units / 18% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 43 games (+18.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games (+17.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games at home (+2.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 24-29 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -12.49% ROI).
- 23-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.5 Units / -23.44% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 1.12% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -9.83% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 21-29 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -15.21% ROI).
- 22-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.5 Units / -20.79% ROI
- 16-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.95 Units / -32.73% ROI
- 31-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.6 Units / 24.64% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .547 (53 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .313 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed a just .308 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth best)– 91st Percentile and .527 vs left-handed batters this season (seventh worst among qualified SPs)– 12th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 33 of 223 batters (15%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 14 of 108 right-handed batters (13%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .171 (30-for-175) against Luis Severino on the road in 2022 — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .132 (10-for-76) against Luis Severino’s elevated fastballs in 2022 — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .080 (2 GB hits out of 25 GBs) against Luis Severino with runners in scoring position in 2022 — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cardinals are just 18-3 (.857) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Cardinals are 22-5 (.815) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 4-6 (.400) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Cardinals are just 1-26 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Guardians are 22-74 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 16-79 (.168) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Guardians are 24-26 (.480) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .808 (1,836 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .465 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .744 (2,546 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Guardians hitters have just 1,045 strikeouts in 5,863 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .643 (2,139 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .338 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 113 of 1,910 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 138 of 1,890 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 450 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Ankle, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D10
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