- The Cardinals are -140 favorites vs the Guardians
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery
- Guardians starting pitcher: Hunter Gaddis
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The St. Louis Cardinals (-140) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+115) on Sunday, May 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Cardinals vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 24-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 21-30 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +120 | O 8.5 -115 | -140 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -145 | U 8.5 -105 | +115 |
Cardinals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 69.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 away games (+11.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 42 of his last 49 games (+28.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 48 games (+15.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Guardians vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Guardians vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Gaddis | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.65 Units / 20% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 44 games (+19.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+18.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 15 games at home (+2.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 25-29 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -10.68% ROI).
- 24-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.5 Units / -21.66% ROI
- 27-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.59% ROI
- 25-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -7.96% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 21-30 against the Run Line (-10.6 Units / -16.54% ROI).
- 22-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.55 Units / -22.05% ROI
- 16-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.95 Units / -33.93% ROI
- 32-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.6 Units / 25.89% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Montgomery has allowed an OBP of .340 (206 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 13th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has allowed a slugging percentage of .503 (94 Total Bases / 187 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — 13th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has allowed a slugging percentage of .539 (55 Total Bases / 102 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — first Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has a strike rate of just 61% (169/278) in two strike counts this season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 13th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Gaddis has a strikeout rate of just 12% (3 SO in 26 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Hunter Gaddis has located his fastball away 56% of the time (89/159) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (4/34) against Hunter Gaddis on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Hunter Gaddis has thrown off-speed pitches 61% of the time (246/405) this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total NonFB; League Avg: 47% — 92nd Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cardinals are 23-5 (.821) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 18-3 (.857) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Cardinals are just 5-8 (.385) after a road win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .481.
The Cardinals are just 9-14 (.391) after a win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Guardians are 22-74 (.229) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are just 3-8 (.273) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Guardians are 6-17 (.261) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Guardians are 16-79 (.168) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .464 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,842 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .458 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,051 strikeouts in 5,903 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .634 (1,879 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .338 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 578 of 7,916 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 143 of 1,927 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 115 of 1,920 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Ankle, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D10
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