- The Marlins are -130 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The St. Louis Cardinals (+110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-130) on Thursday, July 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Cardinals vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 35-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 42-46 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +110 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -130 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 64.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+14.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+13.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+12.20 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+11.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 36 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 23 games at home (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
Marlins vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Dane Myers | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Dane Myers | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
Marlins vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Dane Myers | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 42 away games (+4.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 77 games (+17.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 55 games (+13.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 39-47 against the Run Line (-12.45 Units / -11.28% ROI).
- 35-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.65 Units / -26.57% ROI
- 42-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -3.17% ROI
- 41-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -5.44% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 42-46 against the Run Line (-12.55 Units / -10.85% ROI).
- 51-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.75 Units / 12.55% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.3 Units / -8.57% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.05% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .398 (216 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .315 — fourth Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 58% (518/893) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 46 of 379 batters (12%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 25 of 139 batters (18%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eury Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .821 (23 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .432 — second Percentile.
The last hit on a Eury Perez curveball was May 23rd. Hitters are 0 for their last 17 in ABs ending on his curveball. — J.P. France has the longest active streak at 18.
Opponents have a miss rate of 48% (78/164) against Eury Perez on breaking pitches this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 50% (15/30) against Eury Perez on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cardinals are just 28-5 (.848) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Cardinals are just 25-6 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Cardinals are just 25-10 (.714) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Cardinals are 25-7 (.781) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Marlins are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Marlins are 5-32 (.135) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are 42-1 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Marlins are 31-4 (.886) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have 322 extra-base hits out of 776 total hits (41%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .783 (2,146 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .308 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 50 extra-base hits out of 195 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 26% against Cardinals pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Andrew Knizner (Cardinals): Groin, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Thomas Edman (Cardinals): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
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