- The Mets are -160 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Watch the game on WPIX
The St. Louis Cardinals (+135) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-160) on Saturday, June 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Cardinals vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 27-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 26-43 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -150 | O 9 -110 | +135 |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -110 | -160 |
Cardinals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 69.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+15.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+13.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+8.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Mets vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mets vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Starling Marte | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Adam Wainwright | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +130 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games (+17.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games (+12.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 away games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 29-41 against the Run Line (-16 Units / -17.99% ROI).
- 27-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.4 Units / -31.58% ROI
- 33-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.5 Units / -7.14% ROI
- 35-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -1.56% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 26-43 against the Run Line (-22.1 Units / -25.3% ROI).
- 33-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.15 Units / -18.23% ROI
- 31-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -12.96% ROI
- 37-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 3.75% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Wainwright has an average fastball velocity of just 86.9 MPH this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 15% (93/622) against Adam Wainwright since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has averaged 88.1 MPH on fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (31/192) against Adam Wainwright on non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has walked 20 of 106 batters (19%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 40 of 279 batters (14%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (209/414) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 37% (67/181) against Kodai Senga this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cardinals are just 21-5 (.808) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Cardinals are 24-7 (.774) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 18-8 (.692) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Cardinals are just 18-5 (.783) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Mets are just 0-30 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Mets are 118-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 4-81 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Mets are just 5-4 (.556) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .779.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .335 (1,960 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .782 (1,960 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .262 (4,655 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 156 strikeouts in 772 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,111 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Mets hitters have just 538 strikeouts in 2,695 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 1,217 strikeouts in 6,111 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Cardinals pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Peter Alonso (Mets): Wrist, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals): Back, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Elblow, Day-to-Day
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
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