- The Phillies are -210 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Drew Rom
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The St. Louis Cardinals (+170) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-210) on Sunday, August 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Cardinals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 56-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 55-74 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -115 | O 9 -115 | +170 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | U 9 -105 | -210 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 79.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Andrew Knizner has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+10.65 Units / 82% ROI)
- Adam Wainwright has hit the Earned Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Andrew Knizner has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.75 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 41 games (+19.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+12.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 46 games (+10.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.55 Units / 82% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+10.55 Units / 70% ROI)
Phillies vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Phillies vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
Phillies vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rom | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 away games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 away games (+7.99 Units / 23% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 29 away games (+5.54 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.84 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.15 Units / 14% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 62-68 against the Run Line (-11.3 Units / -6.82% ROI).
- 56-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -35.6 Units / -21.02% ROI
- 61-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -5.67% ROI
- 63-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -2.45% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 55-74 against the Run Line (-27.15 Units / -16.88% ROI).
- 71-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -3.84% ROI
- 53-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.4 Units / -12.32% ROI
- 64-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.1 Units / 4.34% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson threw his changeup for a strike just 47% (143/304) of the time in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
David Peterson threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (193/368) of opposing batters in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 37% (112/304) against David Peterson on changeups in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 52% — first Percentile.
David Peterson had a strike rate of just 59% (875/1,491) against right-handed batters in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (308/965) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (179/466) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (19/51) against Aaron Nola on changeups this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (216/447) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cardinals are 27-9 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 2-55 (.035) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Cardinals are just 2-62 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Cardinals are just 45-5 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Phillies are 7-51 (.121) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are 10-111 (.083) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Phillies are 45-30 (.600) after a road win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Phillies are 17-9 (.654) after a home loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.131 (146 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
Phillies hitters are slugging .555 over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Phillies are batting .259 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Phillies hitters are slugging .610 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 268 of 4,006 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 368 of 4,817 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Hamstring, D15
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Elbow, D10
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals): Back, D15
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Lat, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals): Abdomen, D10
- Guillermo Zuñiga (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Oblique, D10
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