- The Cardinals are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Cardinals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Cardinals / Pirates TV Channel: FDMW | SNPT | MLBN
The St. Louis Cardinals (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Cardinals are 47-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 43-43 ATS.
Cardinals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 8-2, 3.39 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 2-10, 3.90 ERA
Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -102 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -170 | U 7.5 -118 | +105 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Victor Scott II has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+16.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 79% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+15.00 Units / 250% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+10.35 Units / 103% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 86% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 30 away games (+16.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 64 games (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 87 games (+8.02 Units / 8% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 away games (+7.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 86 games (+14.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 49 games (+13.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 27 games at home (+6.74 Units / 21% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 49-38 against the Run Line (+6.5 Units / 5.51% ROI).
- 47-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 6.08% ROI
- 44-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 1.04% ROI
- 39-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.4 Units / -9.84% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 43-43 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -5.8% ROI).
- 37-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -8.86% ROI
- 36-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.6 Units / -17.31% ROI
- 48-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.8 Units / 9.21% ROI
Pirates vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Lars Nootbaar (STL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Lars Nootbaar (STL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Lars Nootbaar (STL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray (STL) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has allowed a SLG of .462 vs right-handed batters (eighth worst)– 11th Percentile but just .301 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth best among qualified SPs)– 90th Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of 35% (151/426) against Sonny Gray in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .106 (35-for-329) against Sonny Gray with two-strikes in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has walked 3% of right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .440 (11 GB hits out of 25 GBs) against Mitch Keller with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a in-zone of 51% (235/463) in two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of just 26% (35 SO in 135 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 13th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (153/778) against Mitch Keller this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 12th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are 103-5 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Cardinals are 39-3 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Cardinals are 39-1 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Cardinals were 18-9 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Pirates are just 8-53 (.131) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Pirates are just 1-42 (.023) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Pirates are just 15-47 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,755 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 20% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Cardinals are batting .270 on changeups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
The Cardinals have answered-back in 34% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 29% on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .319 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 27% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .602 (1,520 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Pirates pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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