- The Cardinals (92-68) are -115 favorites vs the Pirates (61-99)
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Dakota Hudson (8-7), 4.07 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (3-12), 4.58 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The St. Louis Cardinals (-115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Cardinals vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cardinals are 92-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 81-79 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 +100 | -115 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -120 | -105 |
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Albert Pujols has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+8.30 Units / 138% ROI)
- Adam Wainwright has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 79% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 57 games at home (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 57 games at home (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Zack Collins has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.10 Units / 86% ROI)
Pirates vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
Pirates vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| JT Brubaker | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -150 |
| Dakota Hudson | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 away games (+10.20 Units / 60% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 87-73 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 4.33% ROI).
- 92-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 2.65% ROI
- 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -7.59% ROI
- 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -1.17% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 81-79 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -2.56% ROI).
- 61-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -8.06% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.2 Units / -6.92% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.1% ROI
Dakota Hudson: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (107/568) against Dakota Hudson this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (105/337) against Dakota Hudson with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 55% (401/735) when ahead in the count this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (52/325) against Dakota Hudson this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 15% (124 SO in 816 PAs) since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 22 AB’s against Bryse Wilson with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .148 — 100th Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .496 (367 Total Bases / 740 ABs) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .400 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (23/132) against Bryse Wilson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cardinals are 15-4 (.789) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 9-55 (.141) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Cardinals are 15-9 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 68-4 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Pirates are just 95-25 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Pirates are just 20-85 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 598 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .467 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Cardinals hitters have 287 extra-base hits out of 670 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .290 (3,567 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .651 (3,567 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .277 (1,822 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,185 of 12,286 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 241 of 2,798 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Pirates have won just 24% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Collins (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Neck, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
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