Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Cardinals (92-68) are -115 favorites vs the Pirates (61-99)
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Dakota Hudson (8-7), 4.07 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (3-12), 4.58 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The St. Louis Cardinals (-115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Cardinals vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cardinals are 92-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 81-79 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cardinals-1.5 +140O 7.5 +100-115
Pirates +1.5 -165U 7.5 -120-105

Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Cardinals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.30 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Albert Pujols has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+8.30 Units / 138% ROI)
  • Adam Wainwright has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 57 games at home (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 57 games at home (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.25 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Zack Collins has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.10 Units / 86% ROI)

Pirates vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jason Delay 0.5 +1200 0.5

Pirates vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Cal Mitchell 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Jason Delay 0.5 -120 0.5 -115

Pirates vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jason Delay 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Pirates vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JT Brubaker 3.5 +105 3.5 -150
Dakota Hudson 2.5 -185 2.5 +125
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 away games (+10.20 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 87-73 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 4.33% ROI).

  • 92-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 2.65% ROI
  • 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -7.59% ROI
  • 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -1.17% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 81-79 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -2.56% ROI).

  • 61-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -8.06% ROI
  • 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.2 Units / -6.92% ROI
  • 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.1% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (107/568) against Dakota Hudson this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (105/337) against Dakota Hudson with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.

Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 55% (401/735) when ahead in the count this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (52/325) against Dakota Hudson this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 15% (124 SO in 816 PAs) since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitless in 22 AB’s against Bryse Wilson with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .148 — 100th Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .496 (367 Total Bases / 740 ABs) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .400 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (23/132) against Bryse Wilson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cardinals are 15-4 (.789) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 9-55 (.141) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Cardinals are 15-9 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 68-4 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Pirates are just 95-25 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 20-85 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

Cardinals hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 598 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .467 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Cardinals hitters have 287 extra-base hits out of 670 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .290 (3,567 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .651 (3,567 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .277 (1,822 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,185 of 12,286 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 241 of 2,798 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Pirates have won just 24% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Zachary Collins (Pirates): Undisclosed, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • William Crowe (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Neck, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.