Cardinals vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 17, 2022, 9:16 AM
  • The Cardinals (37-28) are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox (34-30)
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright (5-4), 2.83 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (4-1), 2.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The St. Louis Cardinals (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Cardinals vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cardinals are 37-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 35-29 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cardinals-1.5 +145O 10 -105-105
Red Sox +1.5 -175U 10 -115-115

Cardinals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 75.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Harrison Bader has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.65 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Harrison Bader has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Harrison Bader has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.35 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 70% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 40% ROI)

Red Sox vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Red Sox vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Franchy Cordero 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
J.D. Martinez 1.5 +130 1.5 -190
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 -185 0.5 +130

Red Sox vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +110 0.5 -160
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Red Sox vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Michael Wacha 3.5 -110 3.5 -130
Adam Wainwright 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 games (+7.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 49 games (+4.75 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games (+2.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 63 games (+8.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+7.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 57 games (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 36-29 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 7.02% ROI).

  • 37-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 3.77% ROI
  • 33-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 1.4% ROI
  • 29-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -10.17% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 35-29 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 6.03% ROI).

  • 34-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -2.47% ROI
  • 24-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -16.63% ROI
  • 33-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 10.71% ROI

Adam Wainwright has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (260/872) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (1,652/3,015) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Adam Wainwright has a strikeout rate of just 21% (22 SO in 105 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — seventh Percentile.

Adam Wainwright has thrown off-speed pitches 68% of the time (729/1,071) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.

Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (446/903) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of just .358 (62 PA’s) versus the heart of the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .739 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (35/220) against Michael Wacha this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Michael Wacha has allowed a BABIP of .167 vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 99th Percentile.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Cardinals are 29-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .900.

The Cardinals are just 1-26 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Cardinals are 13-3 (.812) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Cardinals are 22-4 (.846) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Red Sox are just 1-20 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Red Sox are 19-15 (.559) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Red Sox are 15-3 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Red Sox are just 120-19 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .460 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Cardinals hitters have 172 extra-base hits out of 402 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .766 (499 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .789 (1,744 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 59 of 579 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 187 of 1,998 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 21% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Red Sox have won 44% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Red Sox vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): COVID-19, D10
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
  • Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.