- The Red Sox are -135 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Watch the game on NESN
The St. Louis Cardinals (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on Saturday, May 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Cardinals vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 14-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 22-17 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -165 | O 10.5 -110 | +110 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | U 10.5 -110 | -135 |
Cardinals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 games (+8.35 Units / 81% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+13.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 28 games (+13.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+13.45 Units / 56% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.65 Units / 48% ROI)
Red Sox vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Juan Yepez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andrew Knizner | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Chris Sale | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 46% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 39 games (+15.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games (+12.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 games (+11.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+6.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.80 Units / 22% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 16-23 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -20.46% ROI).
- 14-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -35.8% ROI
- 20-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.05 Units / 0.12% ROI
- 18-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -9.24% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 22-17 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 6.72% ROI).
- 22-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 15.99% ROI
- 26-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.95 Units / 30.51% ROI
- 12-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.1 Units / -39.27% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Steven Matz has allowed a slugging percentage of .500 (43 Total Bases / 86 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .279 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .329 (24-for-73) against Steven Matz’s non-fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .233 — fourth Percentile.
Steven Matz has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to April 15th — Corey Kluber has the longest active streak at 9.
Opponents are hitting .279 (24-for-86) against Steven Matz with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .178 — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .500 (8-for-16) against Chris Sale on low fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .278 — third Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of .875 (14 Total Bases / 16 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .449 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 51% (57/111) against Chris Sale with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strike rate of 76% (93/123) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 99th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cardinals are just 10-3 (.769) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Cardinals are just 10-3 (.769) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Cardinals are 20-5 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 6-81 (.069) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Red Sox are 11-14 (.440) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Red Sox are 17-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Red Sox are just 2-13 (.133) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Red Sox are just 7-13 (.350) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .458 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Cardinals are just 10-3 (.769) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Cardinals hitters have just 1,198 strikeouts in 5,958 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .800 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .375 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .445 (137 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .457 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 114 of 1,493 batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 24 of 344 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 56% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D10
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