- The Cardinals (50-45) are -155 favorites vs the Reds (35-57)
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz (3-3), 6.02 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-6), 6.21 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The St. Louis Cardinals (-155) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Cardinals vs Reds Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cardinals are 50-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 43-49 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +100 | O 10.5 -115 | -155 |
| Reds | +1.5 -120 | U 10.5 -105 | +125 |
Cardinals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 74.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+12.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Miles Mikolas has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.60 Units / 61% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+18.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 59 games (+18.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+15.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
Reds vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Minor | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
| Steven Matz | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 72 games (+7.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 90 games (+4.85 Units / 4% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 76 games (+8.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 66 games (+5.75 Units / 8% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 51-44 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 2.87% ROI).
- 50-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -1.31% ROI
- 45-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.2 Units / -5.9% ROI
- 46-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -3.16% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 43-49 against the Run Line (-12.6 Units / -10.97% ROI).
- 35-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.1 Units / -12.36% ROI
- 51-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 6.71% ROI
- 40-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.5 Units / -16.25% ROI
Steven Matz: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .494 (41-for-83) against Steven Matz on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .486 (36-for-74) against Steven Matz on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (55/273) against Steven Matz with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.
Steven Matz has not allowed a walk in any of his last three starts — the longest active streak is 6.
Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
22 of Mike Minor’s 73 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Mike Minor has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (331/736) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Mike Minor has an average spin rate of 2528.9 RPM on fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 2215.2 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (8/35) against Mike Minor this month (3 games) — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Cardinals are 29-20 (.592) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Cardinals are just 13-36 (.265) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Cardinals are 21-5 (.808) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 25-6 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Reds are just 16-29 (.356) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Reds are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 19-28 (.404) at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 195 extra-base hits out of 459 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .455 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,999 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .542 (1,943 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .103 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 36% on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .625 (1,655 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Reds hitters are slugging just .382 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 80 of 842 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 908 of 9,576 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 43 of 332 batters (13%) over the last 14 days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (383.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Reds pitchers have walked 356 of 3,573 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Dakota Hudson (Cardinals): Neck, D15
- Juan Yepez (Cardinals): Forearm, D10
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
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