- The Reds are -120 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Drew Rom
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The St. Louis Cardinals (+100) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-120) on Friday, September 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Cardinals vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 61-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 87-55 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -185 | O 10 +100 | +100 |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | U 10 -120 | -120 |
Cardinals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 61.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+16.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+19.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+12.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
Reds vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tommy Edman | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Spencer Steer | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
Reds vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Reds vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rom | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Andrew Abbott | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 away games (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 33 away games (+7.89 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 67 away games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.19 Units / 68% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 32 away games (+5.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 87 of their last 141 games (+23.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games at home (+10.29 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 14% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 67-73 against the Run Line (-10.65 Units / -6.01% ROI).
- 61-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -33.5 Units / -18.56% ROI
- 67-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.4 Units / -3.49% ROI
- 66-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -4.68% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 87-55 against the Run Line (+22.75 Units / 12.05% ROI).
- 73-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.75 Units / 10.29% ROI
- 69-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -5.84% ROI
- 71-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -3.02% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rom has a strike rate of just 59% (159/270) over the last 30 days (3 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (32/143) against Drew Rom over the last 30 days (3 games) — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 29% — seventh Percentile.
Drew Rom has struck out just 10% (5/52) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (3 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fourth Percentile.
Drew Rom has allowed an OBP of .404 (52 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (3 games) — tied for 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 10th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (15/84) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (71/250) against Andrew Abbott this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (32/127) against Andrew Abbott on non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed a slugging percentage of just .149 (30 Total Bases / 201 ABs) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .282 — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 48-6 (.889) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Cardinals are just 60-79 (.432) this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 10-128 (.072) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are 24-46 (.343) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Reds are just 43-33 (.566) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Reds are just 39-43 (.476) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .106 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .261 (6,034 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .485 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .745 (8,824 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Games involving the Reds went UNDER in 72% of their games (39.7% ROI) after a loss as favorites since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Reds are batting just .141 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 11% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 25% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 30 days (26 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,142 of 11,745 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 252 of 2,694 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Young (Reds): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D15
- Brandon Williamson (Reds): COVID, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Covid-19, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): COVID-19, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Joseph Romero (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Elbow, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Lat, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Guillermo Zuñiga (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Oblique, D10
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