- The Cardinals are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson
- Reds starting pitcher: William Spiers
- Watch the game on BSOH
The St. Louis Cardinals (-135) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+110) on Saturday, September 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Cardinals vs Reds Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 62-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 87-56 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +110 | O 10.5 -110 | -135 |
| Reds | +1.5 -135 | U 10.5 -110 | +110 |
Cardinals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+18.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+21.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+13.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Reds vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Reds vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Reds vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Thompson | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Spiers | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 34 away games (+9.09 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.29 Units / 72% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 33 away games (+6.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 71 games (+6.35 Units / 7% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 87 of their last 142 games (+22.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 73 games at home (+11.29 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+3.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 games (+2.05 Units / 9% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 68-73 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -5.4% ROI).
- 62-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.45 Units / -17.88% ROI
- 68-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.4 Units / -2.82% ROI
- 66-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -5.36% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 87-56 against the Run Line (+21.75 Units / 11.46% ROI).
- 73-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.5 Units / 9.39% ROI
- 70-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 71-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -3.71% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .248 (25 Total Bases / 101 ABs) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (160/652) against Zack Thompson since last season — tied for 11th lowest among among 175 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 30% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (160/652) against Zack Thompson since last season — tied for 7th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 10th Percentile.
David Peterson had a strike rate of just 59% (875/1,491) against right-handed batters in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carson Spiers has limited playing time.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are just 49-6 (.891) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Cardinals are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 43-46 (.483) after a win as favorites since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 43-34 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are 24-47 (.338) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Reds are just 13-20 (.394) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Reds are 21-9 (.700) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,735 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .485 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Cardinals are batting just .116 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .332 (5,692 PA’s) at home since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 44% in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .189 on pitches out of the zone since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Reds hitters are slugging just .416 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 26% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 30 days (26 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 252 of 2,703 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds pitchers have walked 382 of 4,143 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Young (Reds): COVID-19, D7
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D15
- Stuart Fairchild (Reds): COVID-19, D7
- Brandon Williamson (Reds): COVID, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Covid-19, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): COVID-19, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Joseph Romero (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Elbow, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Lat, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Guillermo Zuñiga (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Oblique, D10
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