- The Astros are -190 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Chicago Cubs (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Monday, May 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Cubs vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 19-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 19-21 ATS.
Cubs vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -120 | +155 |
| Astros | -1.5 +110 | U 8 +100 | -190 |
Cubs vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+17.65 Units / 60% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+14.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+13.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+11.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+11.65 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+17.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+13.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 34 games (+11.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Astros vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +105 |
| Jameson Taillon | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+6.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.65 Units / 50% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 53% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 22-18 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 6.88% ROI).
- 19-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -5.74% ROI
- 19-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -7.05% ROI
- 20-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -2.49% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 19-21 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -9.4% ROI).
- 21-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -11.06% ROI
- 19-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -6.89% ROI
- 20-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -1.6% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 11 of 450 right-handed batters (2%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 34% (95/278) against Jameson Taillon when he’s behind in the count since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.1 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (88 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 89.6
Jameson Taillon has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 18 opportunities (0%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 10% — eighth Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (391/580) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (90/140) against Framber Valdez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (145/218) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Cubs are just 1-88 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Cubs are 37-35 (.514) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Cubs are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Cubs are just 13-19 (.406) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Astros are 41-23 (.641) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros are just 0-11 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Astros are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Astros are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .605 (874 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Cubs have scored first in 100% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .348 (723 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,110 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 379 strikeouts in 2,225 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 759 strikeouts in 4,306 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 58 strikeouts in 375 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .270 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 4 of 118 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 25 of 359 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 28 of 477 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros have allowed 3.29 runs per game (336/102) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
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