Cubs vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 16

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 16, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros are -165 favorites vs the Cubs
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
  • Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Chicago Cubs (+140) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-165) on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Cubs vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Cubs are 19-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 20-21 ATS.

Cubs vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -145O 7.5 -105+140
Astros -1.5 +120U 7.5 -115-165

Cubs vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+19.40 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.00 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+12.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 41 games (+15.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+11.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+11.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Astros vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Christopher Morel 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Astros vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 -140 0.5 +105
Christopher Morel 0.5 -130 0.5 +100
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +100 0.5 -135
Mauricio Dubon 1.5 +170 1.5 -225

Astros vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Christopher Morel 0.5 +270 0.5 -375
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +220 0.5 -300
Mauricio Dubon 0.5 +220 0.5 -300

Astros vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Steele 4.5 +120 4.5 -160
Cristian Javier 7.5 +105 7.5 -135
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 37 games (+4.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+4.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.35 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.20 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 22-19 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 4.14% ROI).

  • 19-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -7.64% ROI
  • 20-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -4.66% ROI
  • 20-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -4.76% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 20-21 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -7.2% ROI).

  • 22-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -9.01% ROI
  • 20-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -4.52% ROI
  • 20-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -3.9% ROI

starting pitcher – away

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (80/203) against Cristian Javier this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.

Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 55% of the time (101/185) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .165 (53-for-322) against Cristian Javier since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 99th Percentile.

Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 57% of the time (219/384) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Cubs are just 1-89 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.

The Cubs are just 25-38 (.397) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .545.

The Cubs are 37-35 (.514) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.

The Cubs are just 26-12 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .801.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Astros are just 0-11 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.

The Astros are 13-12 (.520) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.

The Astros are 59-6 (.908) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Astros are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.

Cubs hitters are slugging .485 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.

The Cubs are batting .289 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .256.

Cubs hitters are slugging .317 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.

Cubs hitters have an OBP of .354 (469 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Astros hitters have just 379 strikeouts in 2,226 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 58 strikeouts in 376 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 759 strikeouts in 4,307 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have 69 extra-base hits out of 248 total hits (just 28%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Cubs have won 35% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 7.94 (51.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
  • Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
  • Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
  • Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Hamstring, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.