Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 27, 2022, 9:28 AM
  • The Brewers (65-59) are -200 favorites vs the Cubs (55-71)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (5-7), 3.47 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (9-3), 3.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Chicago Cubs (+170) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-200) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 54-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 48-73 ATS.

Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -120O 7 +100+170
Brewers -1.5 +100U 7 -120-200

Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+19.75 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 53 of his last 71 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+17.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+16.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 49 away games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 28 away games (+6.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 away games (+5.10 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 58 of their last 104 games (+14.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+8.27 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+2.95 Units / 6% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 64-60 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -3.4% ROI).

  • 54-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.1 Units / -9.27% ROI
  • 53-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.75 Units / -11.66% ROI
  • 63-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.95 Units / 3.64% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 48-73 against the Run Line (-31.8 Units / -21.68% ROI).

  • 63-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -22 Units / -11.56% ROI
  • 60-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.07% ROI
  • 55-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.95 Units / -7.46% ROI

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (510/1,076) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (1,175/2,632) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (327/680) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 98th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (643/1,174) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .043 (2 GB hits out of 46 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 38% (153/398) against Brandon Woodruff this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .188 (97-for-515) against Brandon Woodruff since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .236 — 96th Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff has struck out 36% (72/200) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Cubs are just 18-101 (.151) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Cubs are just 9-34 (.209) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Cubs are just 27-103 (.208) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cubs are just 4-54 (.069) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Brewers are just 5-27 (.156) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

The Brewers are 6-46 (.115) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Brewers are just 45-8 (.849) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Brewers are 20-112 (.152) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 346 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters have 716 strikeouts in 2,870 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .354 (70 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .644.

The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Brewers are batting just .127 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .682 (2,891 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,018 of 11,043 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.