- The Brewers (66-59) are -165 favorites vs the Cubs (55-72)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (1-4), 4.04 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (9-5), 3.44 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Chicago Cubs (+135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 54-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 49-73 ATS.
Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 -110 | +135 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -110 | -165 |
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+20.75 Units / 73% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+18.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+17.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 53 of his last 72 games (+16.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+10.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 32 of his last 63 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+7.02 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+1.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 64-61 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -4.18% ROI).
- 54-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.1 Units / -9.91% ROI
- 53-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.95 Units / -12.44% ROI
- 64-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 4.34% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-73 against the Run Line (-30.7 Units / -20.79% ROI).
- 64-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -10.92% ROI
- 60-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -0.82% ROI
- 56-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.95 Units / -6.66% ROI
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of 1.149 (46 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .704 — second Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.0 MPH this season (199 balls in play) — tied for 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Adrian Sampson has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 10 innings — Jacob deGrom has the longest active streak at 26.
Adrian Sampson has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (30 Total Bases / 42 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .400 — fourth Percentile.
Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (97/310) against Eric Lauer this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Eric Lauer has walked 25 of 206 batters (12%) versus the top of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Eric Lauer has allowed a slugging percentage of .582 (64 Total Bases / 110 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .413 — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 34% of Eric Lauer’s breaking pitches (142/412) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 10-12 (.455) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 28-38 (.424) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Cubs are 130-6 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Cubs are just 4-54 (.069) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are just 45-8 (.849) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Brewers are 6-46 (.115) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Brewers are 98-81 (.547) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Brewers are 131-24 (.845) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 348 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have 1,996 strikeouts in 7,883 PA’s (25%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .496 (165 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .693.
The Cubs are batting .365 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .334.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .680 (2,915 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of 1.125 (85 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Brewers are batting just .215 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.8 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.1).
Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed 167 home runs this season — 3rd most in MLB.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Back, Day-to-Day
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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