Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 28, 2022, 9:54 AM
  • The Brewers (66-59) are -165 favorites vs the Cubs (55-72)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (1-4), 4.04 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (9-5), 3.44 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Chicago Cubs (+135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 54-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 49-73 ATS.

Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -145O 8.5 -110+135
Brewers -1.5 +120U 8.5 -110-165

Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+20.75 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+18.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+17.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 53 of his last 72 games (+16.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+10.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 32 of his last 63 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.40 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+7.02 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+1.15 Units / 2% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 64-61 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -4.18% ROI).

  • 54-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.1 Units / -9.91% ROI
  • 53-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.95 Units / -12.44% ROI
  • 64-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.95 Units / 4.34% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-73 against the Run Line (-30.7 Units / -20.79% ROI).

  • 64-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -21 Units / -10.92% ROI
  • 60-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -0.82% ROI
  • 56-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.95 Units / -6.66% ROI

Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of 1.149 (46 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .704 — second Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.0 MPH this season (199 balls in play) — tied for 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Adrian Sampson has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 10 innings — Jacob deGrom has the longest active streak at 26.

Adrian Sampson has allowed a slugging percentage of .714 (30 Total Bases / 42 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (4 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .400 — fourth Percentile.

Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (97/310) against Eric Lauer this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Eric Lauer has walked 25 of 206 batters (12%) versus the top of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Eric Lauer has allowed a slugging percentage of .582 (64 Total Bases / 110 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .413 — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 34% of Eric Lauer’s breaking pitches (142/412) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Cubs are just 10-12 (.455) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 28-38 (.424) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Cubs are 130-6 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Cubs are just 4-54 (.069) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Brewers are just 45-8 (.849) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Brewers are 6-46 (.115) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Brewers are 98-81 (.547) on the road since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Brewers are 131-24 (.845) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 348 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have 1,996 strikeouts in 7,883 PA’s (25%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .496 (165 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .693.

The Cubs are batting .365 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .334.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .680 (2,915 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of 1.125 (85 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .736.

The Brewers are batting just .215 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.8 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.1).

Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Cubs pitchers have allowed 167 home runs this season — 3rd most in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Oblique, D10
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.