- The Cubs are -115 favorites vs the Brewers
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Brewers starting pitcher: Julio Teheran
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Chicago Cubs (-115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-105) on Monday, July 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 38-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 38-46 ATS.
Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -115 | -115 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -105 | -105 |
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 52.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+16.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+15.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Mike Tauchman has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+16.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 47 games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.90 Units / 80% ROI)
Brewers vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Brewers vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -200 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Julio Teheran | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.20 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+7.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 78 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+6.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 43-39 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 0.53% ROI).
- 38-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -8.06% ROI
- 39-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.55 Units / -6.11% ROI
- 40-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.8 Units / -3.12% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 38-46 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -12.03% ROI).
- 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 1.77% ROI
- 36-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.85 Units / -13.76% ROI
- 44-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 5.19% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (130/300) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 54% of the time (300/554) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (444/1,001) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
17 of Drew Smyly’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Teheran has allowed a BABIP of .204 this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 98th Percentile.
Julio Teheran has allowed an OBP of just .263 (156 PA’s) this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .208 (30-for-144) against Julio Teheran this season — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (52/281) against Julio Teheran this season — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 19-27 (.413) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .606.
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Brewers are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 33-26 (.559) after a road loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Brewers are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Cubs are batting just .284 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .428 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .146 with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .230 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 48 of 727 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 6% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 13% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.1 MPH (2,025 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 49 of 745 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Brewers have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 478 times this season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, D10
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