Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (46-35) are -150 favorites vs the Cubs (32-47)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (3-5), 4.39 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (6-3), 4.02 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Chicago Cubs (+125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-150) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 32-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 36-45 ATS.

Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -155O 8.5 +100+125
Brewers -1.5 +125U 8.5 -120-150

Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s matchup with 71.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 31 away games (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 away games (+6.35 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Brewers vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Christian Yelich 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Christian Yelich 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jonathan Davis 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Keston Hiura 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Brewers vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Christian Yelich 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jonathan Davis 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Keston Hiura 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Luis Urias 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Brewers vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jonathan Davis 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Keston Hiura 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Luis Urias 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Mike Brosseau 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Brewers vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Lauer 5.5 -140 5.5 -105
Justin Steele 5.5 +115 5.5 -165
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games (+13.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games (+4.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+14.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+4.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 40-39 against the Run Line (-5.85 Units / -5.68% ROI).

  • 32-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.6 Units / -14.29% ROI
  • 39-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -2.93% ROI
  • 38-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -5.57% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 36-45 against the Run Line (-10.6 Units / -10.85% ROI).

  • 46-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -2.31% ROI
  • 41-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 2.83% ROI
  • 35-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.35 Units / -10.53% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .139 (14-for-101) against Justin Steele’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 99th Percentile.

Justin Steele has allowed a slugging percentage of just .228 (23 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .363 — 96th Percentile.

Justin Steele has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.2 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (133 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 85.4

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (135/308) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Eric Lauer has allowed an OPS of 1.745 (50 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.031 — first Percentile.

Eric Lauer has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.105 (42 Total Bases / 38 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .580 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (78/221) against Eric Lauer this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (78/254) against Eric Lauer on fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Cubs are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Cubs are just 9-36 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Cubs are just 32-35 (.478) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Cubs are just 17-27 (.386) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Brewers are 26-8 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 32-6 (.842) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Brewers are 27-20 (.574) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Cubs are batting .401 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Cubs hitters are slugging .673 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .568.

Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cubs hitters have an OBP of .329 (2,255 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Brewers are batting just .227 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Brewers are batting just .321 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 860 of 9,246 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.