- The Brewers (46-35) are -150 favorites vs the Cubs (32-47)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (3-5), 4.39 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (6-3), 4.02 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Chicago Cubs (+125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-150) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 32-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 36-45 ATS.
Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s matchup with 71.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 31 away games (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 away games (+6.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Brewers vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Keston Hiura | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Brewers vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Keston Hiura | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Brewers vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Keston Hiura | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mike Brosseau | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 -105 |
| Justin Steele | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games (+13.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 away games (+6.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games (+4.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.35 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+14.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+4.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 40-39 against the Run Line (-5.85 Units / -5.68% ROI).
- 32-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.6 Units / -14.29% ROI
- 39-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -2.93% ROI
- 38-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -5.57% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 36-45 against the Run Line (-10.6 Units / -10.85% ROI).
- 46-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -2.31% ROI
- 41-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 2.83% ROI
- 35-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.35 Units / -10.53% ROI
Justin Steele: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .139 (14-for-101) against Justin Steele’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 99th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed a slugging percentage of just .228 (23 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .363 — 96th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.2 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (133 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 85.4
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (135/308) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eric Lauer has allowed an OPS of 1.745 (50 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.031 — first Percentile.
Eric Lauer has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.105 (42 Total Bases / 38 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .580 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (78/221) against Eric Lauer this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (78/254) against Eric Lauer on fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Cubs are just 9-36 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Cubs are just 32-35 (.478) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Cubs are just 17-27 (.386) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are 26-8 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Brewers are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 32-6 (.842) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Brewers are 27-20 (.574) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .401 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Cubs hitters are slugging .673 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .329 (2,255 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Brewers are batting just .227 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Brewers are batting just .321 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 860 of 9,246 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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