- The Brewers (47-36) are -275 favorites vs the Cubs (33-48)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-0), 3.37 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (7-4), 2.35 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Chicago Cubs (+220) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-275) on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 33-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-46 ATS.
Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 +105 | O 7.5 -115 | +220 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -125 | U 7.5 -105 | -275 |
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 60.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+7.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Yan Gomes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.65 Units / 44% ROI)
Brewers vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
Brewers vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
Brewers vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Brewers vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 8.5 +100 | 8.5 -145 |
| Adrian Sampson | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+13.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 away games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+4.15 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+14.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.20 Units / 12% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 41-40 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -6.03% ROI).
- 33-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -13.81% ROI
- 40-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -3.13% ROI
- 39-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -5.55% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 37-46 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -10.28% ROI).
- 47-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -2.53% ROI
- 42-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 2.49% ROI
- 36-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -10.39% ROI
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .348 (8-for-23) against Adrian Sampson — tied for 4th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .228 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (13/19) against Adrian Sampson — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
The hardest ball hit off of Adrian Sampson was 115.2 MPH — tied for 5th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 108.5
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (232/414) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (48/111) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (166/422) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has struck out 33% (61/183) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Cubs are 113-4 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Cubs are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Cubs are just 16-92 (.148) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Brewers are 27-20 (.574) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Brewers are 33-6 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Brewers are 35-3 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .399 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 40 double plays in 281 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .644 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Cubs hitters are slugging .680 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging .556 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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