- The Cubs are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Chicago Cubs (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Thursday, July 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 40-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 40-47 ATS.
Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -115 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -105 | -115 |
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 58.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+16.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+14.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 45 games (+14.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 97% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.55 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+8.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+8.65 Units / 173% ROI)
Brewers vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Brewers vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Brewers vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +130 |
| Freddy Peralta | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.25 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+5.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+5.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 81 games (+5.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 44-41 against the Run Line (-0.45 Units / -0.41% ROI).
- 40-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -6.89% ROI
- 41-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.7 Units / -4.99% ROI
- 41-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -4.35% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 40-47 against the Run Line (-11.7 Units / -10.68% ROI).
- 46-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.69% ROI
- 38-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -12 Units / -12.41% ROI
- 45-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 3.69% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .317 (92 Total Bases / 290 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .478 — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed an OPS of just .557 (432 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .701 — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .279 (109 Total Bases / 391 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .398 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .205 (80-for-391) against Marcus Stroman this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 95th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .225 (9-for-40) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of .815 (22 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .432 — third Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed three-ball counts to 41% of batters they faced (17/42 PA’s) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 19% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .153 (13-for-85) against Freddy Peralta’s elevated fastball this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 93rd Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 4-33 (.108) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Cubs are just 20-28 (.417) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .590.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are 25-13 (.658) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .784.
The Brewers are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 33-26 (.559) after a road loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Cubs are batting just .290 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .433 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .221 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .357 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 51 of 755 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 6% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.1 MPH (2,111 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Cubs pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 52 of 774 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Brewers have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 194 times this season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
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