Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 6

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 06, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (47-36) are -275 favorites vs the Cubs (33-48)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-0), 3.37 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (7-4), 2.35 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Chicago Cubs (+220) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-275) on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Cubs vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 33-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 37-46 ATS.

Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 +105O 7.5 -115+220
Brewers -1.5 -125U 7.5 -105-275

Cubs vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 60.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+7.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Yan Gomes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.65 Units / 44% ROI)

Brewers vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jace Peterson 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jonathan Davis 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Kolten Wong 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Luis Urias 0.5 +340 0.5 -650

Brewers vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Jace Peterson 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
Jonathan Davis 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Kolten Wong 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Luis Urias 0.5 -250 0.5 +160

Brewers vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jace Peterson 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jonathan Davis 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Kolten Wong 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Luis Urias 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Brewers vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Corbin Burnes 8.5 +100 8.5 -145
Adrian Sampson 3.5 -175 3.5 +120
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+13.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 away games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+4.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+14.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.20 Units / 12% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 41-40 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -6.03% ROI).

  • 33-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -13.81% ROI
  • 40-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -3.13% ROI
  • 39-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -5.55% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 37-46 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -10.28% ROI).

  • 47-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -2.53% ROI
  • 42-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 2.49% ROI
  • 36-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -10.39% ROI

Opponents batted .348 (8-for-23) against Adrian Sampson — tied for 4th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .228 — fifth Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (13/19) against Adrian Sampson — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.

The hardest ball hit off of Adrian Sampson was 115.2 MPH — tied for 5th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 108.5

Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (232/414) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (48/111) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (166/422) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has struck out 33% (61/183) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Cubs are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.

The Cubs are 113-4 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Cubs are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.

The Cubs are just 16-92 (.148) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Brewers are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .105.

The Brewers are 27-20 (.574) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.

The Brewers are 33-6 (.846) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Brewers are 35-3 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .895.

The Cubs are batting .399 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 40 double plays in 281 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .644 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .578.

Cubs hitters are slugging .680 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters are slugging .556 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Concussion, D7
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Back/Rib cage, Day-to-Day
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Willson Contreras (Cubs): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.