- The Cardinals (76-55) are -250 favorites vs the Cubs (56-75)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (1-4), 3.97 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (7-3), 3.28 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Chicago Cubs (+200) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-250) on Friday, September 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 55-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 72-56 ATS.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 +100 | O 8 -115 | +200 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 -120 | U 8 -105 | -250 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s matchup with 68.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+18.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 56 of his last 76 games (+17.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+16.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+15.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 47 games at home (+16.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 47 games at home (+15.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 52 games (+14.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games at home (+13.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+14.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+2.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 8 away games (+1.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 57 of their last 108 games (+5.00 Units / 4% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 47 games (+3.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 66-63 against the Run Line (-7.3 Units / -4.4% ROI).
- 55-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.15 Units / -10.35% ROI
- 55-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -10.64% ROI
- 64-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 2.72% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 72-56 against the Run Line (+14.25 Units / 8.91% ROI).
- 73-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.15 Units / 5.31% ROI
- 60-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -7.11% ROI
- 63-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.8% ROI
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (11/19) against Adrian Sampson against right-handed batters — tied for 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — fourth Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .396 (21 Total Bases / 53 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .577 — 92nd Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 7% (5 SO in 73 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 12th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (34/118) against Adrian Sampson this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .283 (17-for-60) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 83rd Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has walked 27 of 583 batters (5%) this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 87th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has attempted to pick off a runner at second base 8 timesthis season — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (77/216) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 94th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Cubs are just 18-103 (.149) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs are just 28-37 (.431) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Cubs are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
The Cubs are just 4-56 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Cardinals are 7-43 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Cardinals are 42-22 (.656) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Cardinals are 43-9 (.827) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Cardinals are 33-11 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 49 double plays in 353 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have 2,753 strikeouts in 10,919 PA’s (25%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have 725 strikeouts in 2,912 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs hitters have 2,028 strikeouts in 8,007 PA’s (25%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 238 extra-base hits out of 555 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have 265 extra-base hits out of 627 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .458 against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Cardinals are batting .415 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,037 of 11,243 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The longest HR allowed by the Cardinals pitchers this season traveled 494.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 460.0
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 125 double plays in 980 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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