- The Cardinals (77-55) are -200 favorites vs the Cubs (56-76)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (5-7), 3.23 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright (9-9), 3.09 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Chicago Cubs (+170) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-200) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 55-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 73-56 ATS.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -120 | O 7.5 -110 | +170 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +100 | U 7.5 -110 | -200 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+18.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 56 of his last 76 games (+17.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+16.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+15.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 47 games at home (+16.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 47 games at home (+15.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 52 games (+14.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games at home (+13.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+15.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+2.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 5 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+1.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 66-64 against the Run Line (-8.35 Units / -5% ROI).
- 55-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.15 Units / -10.96% ROI
- 55-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -10.55% ROI
- 64-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 2.7% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 73-56 against the Run Line (+15.25 Units / 9.46% ROI).
- 74-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.15 Units / 5.81% ROI
- 60-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -7.05% ROI
- 63-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.78% ROI
Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (652/1,507) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 29% of the time (183/634) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
18 of Drew Smyly’s 58 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (659/1,200) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Adam Wainwright: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Wainwright has thrown off-speed pitches 68% of the time (798/1,177) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (83/267) against Adam Wainwright this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has thrown off-speed pitches 68% of the time (934/1,376) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 56% of the time (2,272/4,052) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Cubs are just 4-61 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Cubs are just 4-57 (.066) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Cubs are just 28-38 (.424) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Cubs are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Cardinals are 7-43 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Cardinals are 59-3 (.952) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Cardinals are 11-9 (.550) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 42-8 (.840) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 49 double plays in 356 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .374 (77 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .650.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .167 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters have 729 strikeouts in 2,938 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Cardinals are batting .269 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Cardinals hitters have 240 extra-base hits out of 558 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have 267 extra-base hits out of 630 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,043 of 11,281 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The longest HR allowed by the Cardinals pitchers this season traveled 494.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 460.0
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 126 double plays in 991 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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