Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 03, 2022, 9:24 AM
  • The Cardinals (77-55) are -200 favorites vs the Cubs (56-76)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (5-7), 3.23 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright (9-9), 3.09 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Chicago Cubs (+170) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-200) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 55-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 73-56 ATS.

Cubs vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -120O 7.5 -110+170
Cardinals -1.5 +100U 7.5 -110-200

Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cardinals vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+18.75 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 56 of his last 76 games (+17.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+16.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+15.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 47 games at home (+16.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 47 games at home (+15.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 52 games (+14.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.25 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 49 games at home (+13.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+15.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+2.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 5 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.90 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games (+4.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+1.10 Units / 6% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 66-64 against the Run Line (-8.35 Units / -5% ROI).

  • 55-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.15 Units / -10.96% ROI
  • 55-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -10.55% ROI
  • 64-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 2.7% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 73-56 against the Run Line (+15.25 Units / 9.46% ROI).

  • 74-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.15 Units / 5.81% ROI
  • 60-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -7.05% ROI
  • 63-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.78% ROI

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (652/1,507) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 99th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 29% of the time (183/634) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.

18 of Drew Smyly’s 58 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (659/1,200) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.

Adam Wainwright: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adam Wainwright has thrown off-speed pitches 68% of the time (798/1,177) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (83/267) against Adam Wainwright this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Adam Wainwright has thrown off-speed pitches 68% of the time (934/1,376) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.

Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 56% of the time (2,272/4,052) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Cubs are just 4-61 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Cubs are just 4-57 (.066) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Cubs are just 28-38 (.424) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Cubs are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Cardinals are 7-43 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Cardinals are 59-3 (.952) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Cardinals are 11-9 (.550) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 42-8 (.840) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 49 double plays in 356 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .374 (77 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .650.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .167 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.

Cubs hitters have 729 strikeouts in 2,938 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .470 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.

The Cardinals are batting .269 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Cardinals hitters have 240 extra-base hits out of 558 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have 267 extra-base hits out of 630 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,043 of 11,281 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The longest HR allowed by the Cardinals pitchers this season traveled 494.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 460.0

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 126 double plays in 991 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Knee, D15
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.