- The Cardinals (78-55) are -190 favorites vs the Cubs (56-77)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (3-6), 3.98 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas (10-10), 3.47 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Chicago Cubs (+155) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-190) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 55-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 74-56 ATS.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -135 | O 7 +100 | +155 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +110 | U 7 -120 | -190 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 66.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+17.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+16.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 78 games (+16.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+15.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 49 games at home (+17.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games at home (+16.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 54 games (+14.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 51 games at home (+11.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 away games (+3.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games (+1.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 away games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 49 games (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 58 of their last 110 games (+4.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+2.10 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 66-65 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -5.7% ROI).
- 55-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.15 Units / -11.56% ROI
- 56-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -9.78% ROI
- 64-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 1.84% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 74-56 against the Run Line (+16.3 Units / 10.05% ROI).
- 75-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.15 Units / 6.3% ROI
- 61-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -6.3% ROI
- 63-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -2.61% ROI
Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to August 15th — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 9.
Marcus Stroman has not allowed a home run in any of the last 24.0 innings he’s appeared — Reynaldo Lopez has the longest active streak at 54.0.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (23/60) against Marcus Stroman when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 55% (89/162) against Marcus Stroman this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Miles Mikolas: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (137/671) against Miles Mikolas this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Miles Mikolas has walked 5 of 115 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (38/234) against Miles Mikolas with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (233/1,275) against Miles Mikolas this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Cubs are just 18-103 (.149) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs are just 28-39 (.418) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Cubs are just 55-63 (.466) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Cubs are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Cardinals are 12-4 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 62-3 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Cardinals are 43-8 (.843) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Cardinals are 35-11 (.761) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 49 double plays in 356 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs have won just 59% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .167 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 243 extra-base hits out of 563 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .810 (2,430 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Cardinals hitters have 270 extra-base hits out of 635 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .473 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,050 of 11,320 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 130 double plays in 1,000 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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