- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Chicago Cubs (-135) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) on Friday, September 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Cubs vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 78-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 79-69 ATS.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -115 | -135 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -105 | +110 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 64.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+19.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+15.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+13.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+12.15 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+15.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+15.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+12.10 Units / 134% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Justin Steele | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 85 games (+13.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 17 games (+12.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.83 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 54 games (+3.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.74 Units / 16% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+14.53 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+8.78 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 52 games at home (+5.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-72 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 0.38% ROI).
- 78-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 1.1% ROI
- 71-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -4.99% ROI
- 71-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -4.08% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 79-69 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 0.29% ROI).
- 76-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 63-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.35 Units / -14.09% ROI
- 77-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 5.65% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (752/1,634) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (194/419) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (301/649) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (301/649) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (33/122) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (38/122) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .644 (105 Total Bases / 163 ABs) on fastballs this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .457 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (30/51) against Brandon Pfaadt on elevated fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs are just 18-25 (.419) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 30-34 (.469) after a loss as favorites since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Cubs are just 33-42 (.440) after a home loss since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Cubs are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 111-21 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 127-13 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 53-36 (.596) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Diamondbacks are just 31-14 (.689) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters have been successful in 90% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Cubs are batting .306 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Cubs are batting .287 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have just 844 strikeouts in 4,033 PA’s (21%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Cubs pitchers this season traveled 481.0 feet — — tied for 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.4
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (3,677 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .206 against Cubs pitchers with the shift since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Cubs pitchers have walked 90 of 1,305 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.8 MPH (3,732 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jeimer Candelario (Cubs): Back, D10
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Rib, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Forearm, D15
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