- The Cubs are -115 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Watch the game on ARID
The Chicago Cubs (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Cubs vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 78-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 80-69 ATS.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -110 | -115 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -110 | -105 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 55.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Cubs vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+17.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 away games (+16.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+13.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 40 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+14.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.95 Units / 50% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Corbin Carroll | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Davies | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-73 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -0.16% ROI).
- 78-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 0.35% ROI
- 72-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -4.35% ROI
- 71-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.6 Units / -4.71% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 80-69 against the Run Line (+1.55 Units / 0.81% ROI).
- 77-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 2.09% ROI
- 64-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.35 Units / -13.4% ROI
- 77-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +8 Units / 4.96% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has thrown his changeup 66% of the time (335/511) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 87.2 MPH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has thrown his changeup 51% of the time (221/437) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has located his pitches away 64% of the time (1,138/1,768) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 21% (193/914) against Zach Davies on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 63% of the time (1,240/1,955) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (351/1,001) against Zach Davies in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (959/2,675) against Zach Davies in non-two strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs are just 18-25 (.419) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs were just 19-11 (.633) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cubs are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are 42-9 (.824) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 128-13 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 112-21 (.842) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 31-14 (.689) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have been successful in 90% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Cubs are batting just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters have 49 extra-base hits out of 171 total hits (just 29%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .517 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .598.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,268 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 91 of 1,313 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Cubs pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .206 against Cubs pitchers with the shift since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jeimer Candelario (Cubs): Back, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Forearm, D15
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