- The Cubs are -115 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jordan Wicks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Chicago Cubs (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Cubs vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 78-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 81-69 ATS.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -105 | -115 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -115 | -105 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 56.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+17.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 away games (+16.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+13.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 40 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+14.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+11.10 Units / 111% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wicks | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
| Ryne Nelson | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-74 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -0.7% ROI).
- 78-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -0.24% ROI
- 73-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -3.72% ROI
- 71-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -5.32% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 81-69 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 1.32% ROI).
- 78-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 65-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.35 Units / -12.71% ROI
- 77-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.95 Units / 4.28% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Wicks has not walked any of the 40 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (24/39) against Jordan Wicks — 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.
Jordan Wicks has walked 1 of 48 batters (2%) — 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.
Jordan Wicks has not allowed a home run in any of the last 22.2 innings he’s appeared — Tanner Scott has the longest active streak at 62.2.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 8.59 (51.1 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 4.18 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (80-for-220) against Ryne Nelson at home this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (70/418) against Ryne Nelson this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .440 (113 Total Bases / 257 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .311 — second Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs are just 33-42 (.440) after a home loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Cubs are just 18-26 (.409) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are 25-3 (.893) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Cubs are just 30-36 (.455) after a loss as favorites since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 128-13 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 112-21 (.842) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Diamondbacks are just 54-36 (.600) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have been successful in 90% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .513 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .598.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .352 (661 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Cubs are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have just 853 strikeouts in 4,085 PA’s (21%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,277 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 92 of 1,326 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (3,699 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .231 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have 394 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Fulmer (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jeimer Candelario (Cubs): Back, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Forearm, D15
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