Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 17

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(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 17, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Cubs are -115 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Jordan Wicks
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Chicago Cubs (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Cubs vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Cubs are 78-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 81-69 ATS.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs-1.5 +140O 9 -105-115
Diamondbacks +1.5 -165U 9 -115-105

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 56.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Cubs vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+17.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 away games (+16.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 35 games (+13.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 40 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+14.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Evan Longoria has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+11.10 Units / 111% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Christian Walker 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Christopher Morel 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Diamondbacks vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Christian Walker 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Christopher Morel 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -250 0.5 +185

Diamondbacks vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Christian Walker 0.5 +130 0.5 -175
Christopher Morel 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +180 0.5 -250

Diamondbacks vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jordan Wicks 3.5 +105 3.5 -140
Ryne Nelson 3.5 -150 3.5 +115
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-74 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -0.7% ROI).

  • 78-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -0.24% ROI
  • 73-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -3.72% ROI
  • 71-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -5.32% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 81-69 against the Run Line (+2.55 Units / 1.32% ROI).

  • 78-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 2.61% ROI
  • 65-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.35 Units / -12.71% ROI
  • 77-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.95 Units / 4.28% ROI

Jordan Wicks has not walked any of the 40 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (24/39) against Jordan Wicks — 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.

Jordan Wicks has walked 1 of 48 batters (2%) — 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.

Jordan Wicks has not allowed a home run in any of the last 22.2 innings he’s appeared — Tanner Scott has the longest active streak at 62.2.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 8.59 (51.1 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 4.18 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .364 (80-for-220) against Ryne Nelson at home this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (70/418) against Ryne Nelson this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .440 (113 Total Bases / 257 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .311 — second Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Cubs are just 33-42 (.440) after a home loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Cubs are just 18-26 (.409) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are 25-3 (.893) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Cubs are just 30-36 (.455) after a loss as favorites since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Diamondbacks are just 128-13 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.

The Diamondbacks are just 112-21 (.842) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.

The Diamondbacks are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.

The Diamondbacks are just 54-36 (.600) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

Cubs hitters have been successful in 90% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .513 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .598.

Cubs hitters have an OBP of .352 (661 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.

The Cubs are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.

Diamondbacks hitters have just 853 strikeouts in 4,085 PA’s (21%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,277 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Cubs pitchers have walked 92 of 1,326 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (3,699 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .231 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .260.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have 394 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
  • Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
  • Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
  • Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Fulmer (Cubs): Forearm, D15
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Jeimer Candelario (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
  • Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Forearm, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.