- The Giants (48-50) are -145 favorites vs the Cubs (40-57)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (4-6), 4.01 ERA
- Giants starting pitcher: Robert Wood (6-8), 4.21 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Chicago Cubs (+120) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-145) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Giants are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Cubs vs Giants Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 40-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 45-53 ATS.
Cubs vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -110 | +120 |
| Giants | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -110 | -145 |
Cubs vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 44 games (+18.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+18.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.50 Units / 76% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 68% ROI)
- Donovan Walton has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 81% ROI)
- Brandon Belt has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Giants vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Slater | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| David Villar | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Joey Bart | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Giants vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Slater | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| David Villar | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Joey Bart | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
Giants vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Slater | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| David Villar | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Bart | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Giants vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +100 |
| Alex Wood | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 96 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 away games (+8.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+7.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Giants: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+13.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+5.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 50-47 against the Run Line (-4.6 Units / -3.68% ROI).
- 40-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.9 Units / -11.92% ROI
- 43-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -9.07% ROI
- 48-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 0.84% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 45-53 against the Run Line (-13.4 Units / -10.96% ROI).
- 48-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.55 Units / -14.14% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -2.52% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -6.82% ROI
Justin Steele: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .125 (16-for-128) against Justin Steele’s non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (168/383) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed a slugging percentage of just .195 (25 Total Bases / 128 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .364 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (771/1,079) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 99th Percentile.
Robert Wood: Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (223/683) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 99th Percentile.
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (100/285) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (135/329) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 29% of the time (755/2,583) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 95th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Cubs are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Cubs are just 40-44 (.476) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Cubs are just 5-25 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cubs are just 7-38 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Giants are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Giants are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Giants are 21-107 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Giants are 16-6 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won just 50% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 45 double plays in 301 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 66 opportunities (23%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .349 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants are batting just .209 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Giants hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Giants hitters have drawn 693 walks in 7,119 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Giants are batting just .137 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 691 of 9,679 batters (7%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Giants pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Giants vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Curtis Casali (Giants): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rosenthal (Giants): Hamstring, D15
- Joseph Bart (Giants): Illness, Day-to-Day
- José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Mauricio Llovera (Giants): Hip, D60
- Brandon Crawford (Giants): Right Knee, D10
- Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Evan Longoria (Giants): Hamstring, D10
- Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
- Zack Littell (Giants): Oblique, D15
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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