Cubs vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Giants (48-50) are -145 favorites vs the Cubs (40-57)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (4-6), 4.01 ERA
  • Giants starting pitcher: Robert Wood (6-8), 4.21 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Chicago Cubs (+120) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-145) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco.

The Giants are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Cubs vs Giants Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 40-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 45-53 ATS.

Cubs vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -175O 8 -110+120
Giants -1.5 +145U 8 -110-145

Cubs vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Giants vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 44 games (+18.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+18.75 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+14.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.50 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Donovan Walton has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Brandon Belt has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Joc Pederson has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Joc Pederson has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+7.10 Units / 19% ROI)

Giants vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Slater 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Brandon Belt 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Darin Ruf 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
David Villar 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Joey Bart 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Giants vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Slater 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Brandon Belt 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Darin Ruf 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
David Villar 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Joey Bart 0.5 -115 0.5 -120

Giants vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Slater 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Brandon Belt 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Darin Ruf 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
David Villar 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Joey Bart 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Giants vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Steele 4.5 -140 4.5 +100
Alex Wood 6.5 +120 6.5 -165
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 96 games (+9.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 34 away games (+8.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+7.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+13.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+5.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.40 Units / 32% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 50-47 against the Run Line (-4.6 Units / -3.68% ROI).

  • 40-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.9 Units / -11.92% ROI
  • 43-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -9.07% ROI
  • 48-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 0.84% ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 45-53 against the Run Line (-13.4 Units / -10.96% ROI).

  • 48-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.55 Units / -14.14% ROI
  • 47-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -2.52% ROI
  • 45-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -6.82% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .125 (16-for-128) against Justin Steele’s non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (168/383) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has allowed a slugging percentage of just .195 (25 Total Bases / 128 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .364 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (771/1,079) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 99th Percentile.

Robert Wood: Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (223/683) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 99th Percentile.

Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (100/285) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.

Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (135/329) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 29% of the time (755/2,583) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 95th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Cubs are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Cubs are just 40-44 (.476) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Cubs are just 5-25 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cubs are just 7-38 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Giants are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Giants are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Giants are 21-107 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Giants are 16-6 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Cubs have won just 50% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 45 double plays in 301 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 66 opportunities (23%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .349 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.

The Giants are batting just .209 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Giants hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Giants hitters have drawn 693 walks in 7,119 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Giants are batting just .137 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Giants pitchers have walked 691 of 9,679 batters (7%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Giants pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Giants vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Curtis Casali (Giants): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Giants): Hamstring, D15
  • Joseph Bart (Giants): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Mauricio Llovera (Giants): Hip, D60
  • Brandon Crawford (Giants): Right Knee, D10
  • Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan Longoria (Giants): Hamstring, D10
  • Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
  • Zack Littell (Giants): Oblique, D15
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
  • Matthew Boyd (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.