• The Cubs are -130 favorites vs the Guardians
• Cubs vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Cubs / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | MARQ

The Chicago Cubs (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+110) on April 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Cubs are 3-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 5-3 ATS.

Cubs vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Cubs starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 1-0, 0.00 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi 0-1, 12.47 ERA

Cubs vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Cubs vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+11.25 Units / 125% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 44% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+20.00 Units / 400% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 59% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Slade Cecconi has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.40 Units / 91% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Cubs Best Bets Today:

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 80 of their last 160 games (+13.70 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 117 games (+13.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 26 away games (+13.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+5.45 Units / 10% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 77 games (+21.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 128 games (+17.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 82 games (+13.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games at home (+9.59 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 78 games (+8.55 Units / 10% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 3-4 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -8.11% ROI).

• 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.05 Units / -31.27% ROI
• 3-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -16.56% ROI
• 4-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 8.92% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 5-3 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 8.37% ROI).

• 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 62.96% ROI
• 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
• 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Cubs were 40-9 (.816) when they scored in the first inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .636.

The Cubs are 73-19 (.793) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .640.

The Cubs were 48-6 (.889) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .743.

The Cubs were 31-22 (.585) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2025 season Today, they face Guardians (eighth in runs allowed).

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Guardians were 33-4 (.868) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .743.

The Guardians were 24-2 (.923) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Guardians were 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians were 50-8 (.847) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .438 (33 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .317 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .212 (33 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Cubs hitters slugged .434 against LHP in the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .545 (690 PA’s) in righty-righty matchups in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .189 in righty-righty matchups since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

The Guardians batted just .186 in righty-righty matchups in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters struck out in 32% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups in the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends

Cubs pitchers have not struck out any hitters in 5 PA’s in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB.

Cubs pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Cubs pitchers picked-off 27 runners in the 2025 season — most in MLB.

Cubs pitchers walked 7% of batters in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents had a chase percentage of just 26% against the Guardians pitchers in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 43% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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