- The Mariners are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski, 0.00 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (+105) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the Seattle Mariners (-125) on Monday, March 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Peoria.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Cubs vs Mariners Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Cubs are 6-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 3-5 ATS.
Cubs vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -175 | O 10.5 -115 | +105 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +145 | U 10.5 -105 | -125 |
Cubs vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Madrigal has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alfonso Rivas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+0.40 Units / 6% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+2.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+18.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 5-2 against the Run Line (+3.2 Units / 33.68% ROI).
- 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 43.39% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -38.98% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 33.14% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 3-5 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -29.6% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -18.87% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.7 Units / -56.72% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.9 Units / 50% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 14% (12/89) versus Hayden Wesneski over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski walked 1 of 47 left-handed batters (2%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 91st Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .159 (7-for-44) against Hayden Wesneski over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .236 — 89th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .086 (3-for-35) against Hayden Wesneski versus the bottom of the order over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 96th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo had a strikeout rate of 48% (62/130) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (281/474) against Luis Castillo since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (210/362) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Castillo allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (19 Total Bases / 114 ABs) on elevated fastballs last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .374 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mariners are 41-11 (.788) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Mariners are 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 62-10 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Mariners are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
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