- The Cubs are -110 favorites vs the Marlins
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Cubs vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 14-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 10-16 ATS.
Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -110 | -110 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -110 | -110 |
Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 65.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+14.40 Units / 101% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.30 Units / 60% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Marlins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Yan Gomes | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Yan Gomes | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yan Gomes | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+1.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 15-9 against the Run Line (+6.45 Units / 22.09% ROI).
- 14-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 22.5% ROI
- 12-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -1.13% ROI
- 11-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -8.73% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 10-16 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -29.78% ROI).
- 13-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 4.17% ROI
- 11-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -15.11% ROI
- 14-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 6.25% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has walked 9 of 28 batters (32%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 72% (28/39) against Marcus Stroman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (44/73) against Marcus Stroman this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .160 (8-for-50) against Marcus Stroman this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — 95th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .488 (43 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .319 — second Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (17/41) against Jesus Luzardo when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .593 (27 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .310 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .314 (70 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — eighth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 37-21 (.638) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .810.
The Cubs are just 37-25 (.597) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Cubs are 6-2 (.750) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Cubs are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 114-19 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are 13-0 (1.000) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Marlins are just 9-66 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Marlins are 6-0 (1.000) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .222 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Cubs are batting .309 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Cubs hitters have just 126 strikeouts in 656 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .881 (345 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 874 strikeouts in 3,193 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .281 (1,497 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .619 (1,497 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Marlins are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,220 of 13,256 batters (9%) since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents are hitting just .213 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jameson Taillon (Cubs): Groin, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
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