- The Cubs (63-85) are -110 favorites vs the Marlins (61-88)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (4-7), 3.76 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (3-7), 3.74 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Cubs vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 62-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 69-78 ATS.
Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | O 6.5 +100 | -110 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | U 6.5 -120 | -110 |
Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Marcus Stroman has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.25 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+10.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trevor Rogers has hit the Earned Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)
Marlins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Marlins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
Marlins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Marlins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -125 |
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 62 away games (+11.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+8.30 Units / 166% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 41 away games (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.20 Units / 39% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.05 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+4.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 72-73 against the Run Line (-12.15 Units / -6.56% ROI).
- 62-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.3 Units / -8.62% ROI
- 59-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.35 Units / -14.65% ROI
- 75-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.1 Units / 6.3% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 69-78 against the Run Line (-20.5 Units / -10.56% ROI).
- 61-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.55 Units / -16.97% ROI
- 65-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.3 Units / -10.63% ROI
- 75-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 2.32% ROI
Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (47/78) against Marcus Stroman when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 55% (247/451) against Marcus Stroman since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (840/2,263) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 52% (13/25) against Marcus Stroman this month (3 games) — tied for 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 83rd Percentile.
Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 29% (78/265) against Jesus Luzardo with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .816 (40 Total Bases / 49 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .397 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (10/42) against Jesus Luzardo this month (3 games) — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.237 (58 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .696 — first Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs are just 62-71 (.466) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 25-83 (.231) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 46-12 (.793) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Marlins are just 8-51 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 372 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting .372 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .173 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,933 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have 808 strikeouts in 2,933 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Marlins are batting just .209 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .329 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,093 of 11,864 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 17% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, Day-to-Day
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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