Cubs vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 21, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Cubs (63-85) are -110 favorites vs the Marlins (61-88)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (4-7), 3.76 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (3-7), 3.74 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-110) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Cubs vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 62-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 69-78 ATS.

Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs-1.5 +165O 6.5 +100-110
Marlins +1.5 -200U 6.5 -120-110

Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 53.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Marcus Stroman has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.25 Units / 56% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+10.35 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
  • JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+8.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Trevor Rogers has hit the Earned Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)

Marlins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
JJ Bleday 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jon Berti 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Marlins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
JJ Bleday 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Jon Berti 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Lewin Diaz 0.5 -110 0.5 -125

Marlins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
JJ Bleday 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jon Berti 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Marlins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jesus Luzardo 7.5 -110 7.5 -125
Marcus Stroman 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 62 away games (+11.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+8.30 Units / 166% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 41 away games (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.05 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+4.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.40 Units / 7% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 72-73 against the Run Line (-12.15 Units / -6.56% ROI).

  • 62-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.3 Units / -8.62% ROI
  • 59-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.35 Units / -14.65% ROI
  • 75-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.1 Units / 6.3% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 69-78 against the Run Line (-20.5 Units / -10.56% ROI).

  • 61-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.55 Units / -16.97% ROI
  • 65-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.3 Units / -10.63% ROI
  • 75-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 2.32% ROI

Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (47/78) against Marcus Stroman when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 97th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 55% (247/451) against Marcus Stroman since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (840/2,263) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 52% (13/25) against Marcus Stroman this month (3 games) — tied for 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 83rd Percentile.

Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 29% (78/265) against Jesus Luzardo with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .816 (40 Total Bases / 49 ABs) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .397 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (10/42) against Jesus Luzardo this month (3 games) — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.237 (58 PA’s) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .696 — first Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Cubs are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Cubs are just 62-71 (.466) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Marlins are just 25-83 (.231) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 46-12 (.793) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Marlins are just 8-51 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 372 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs are batting .372 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .173 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,933 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters have 808 strikeouts in 2,933 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Marlins are batting just .209 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .329 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,093 of 11,864 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 17% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Marlins vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, Day-to-Day
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.