- The Mets (89-54) are -200 favorites vs the Cubs (60-82)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (6-8), 3.56 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (7-4), 3.46 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Chicago Cubs (+165) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-200) on Wednesday, September 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Cubs vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 59-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 76-64 ATS.
Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -130 | O 7.5 -105 | +165 |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -115 | -200 |
Cubs vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Wednesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Franmil Reyes has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+10.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+16.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 39 games at home (+16.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 35 games at home (+14.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 53 games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 45 of his last 61 games (+11.45 Units / 8% ROI)
Mets vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mets vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Darin Ruf | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games (+17.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 away games (+5.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.90 Units / 75% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 81 of their last 143 games (+9.47 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 63 games (+5.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.15 Units / 1% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 70-69 against the Run Line (-9.35 Units / -5.26% ROI).
- 59-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.9 Units / -9.37% ROI
- 57-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.65 Units / -13.53% ROI
- 71-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.4 Units / 5.46% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 76-64 against the Run Line (+10.75 Units / 6.15% ROI).
- 88-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 3.16% ROI
- 71-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.65 Units / 1.72% ROI
- 62-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.1 Units / -10.45% ROI
Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (937/2,558) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (1,279/2,846) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (1,624/3,814) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 29% of the time (195/665) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (37/102) against David Peterson on sliders since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 59% (833/1,416) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (140/276) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,056/1,767) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 4-60 (.062) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Cubs are just 8-40 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Cubs are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are 75-23 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 78-3 (.963) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are 32-6 (.842) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Mets are just 3-44 (.064) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 51 double plays in 364 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .156 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters have been successful in 100% of their bunt for hit attempts this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Cubs hitters have 2,108 strikeouts in 8,308 PA’s (25%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (3,775 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .263 (2,900 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Mets are batting .321 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 75 of 1,273 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Nelson Velázquez (Cubs): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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