- The – (80-35) are favorites vs the – (80-35)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (5-6), 3.69 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-2), 5.94 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Chicago Cubs () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 48-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 49-69 ATS.
Cubs vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Cubs vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 60 games (+22.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+18.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+17.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 101% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
Nationals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Luke Voit | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Luke Voit | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Nationals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luke Voit | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
Nationals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+10.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 away games (+6.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 46 away games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 away games (+3.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 62 of their last 105 games (+18.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games at home (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+0.20 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 59-56 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -3.6% ROI).
- 48-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.25 Units / -13.12% ROI
- 50-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -10.72% ROI
- 58-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 2.48% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-69 against the Run Line (-28.6 Units / -19.8% ROI).
- 39-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -22 Units / -17.99% ROI
- 59-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 1.41% ROI
- 52-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -9.49% ROI
Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,085/2,447) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (319/665) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 56% of the time (228/408) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (420/891) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (4/26) against Cory Abbott this month (3 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (11/41) against Cory Abbott this month (3 games) — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Cory Abbott has allowed an OPS of 1.113 (39 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .703 — third Percentile.
Cory Abbott has walked 10 of 63 batters (16%) this month (3 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 18-99 (.154) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Cubs are 123-6 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Cubs are just 47-54 (.465) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Cubs are just 8-34 (.190) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 39-66 (.371) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 106-16 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Nationals are just 12-70 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 340 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .345.
Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 27% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Nationals hitters have just 596 strikeouts in 3,009 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cubs pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .305 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 8.18 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.77.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.94 (468.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Nationals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Luis García (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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