Cubs vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 17

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 17, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (80-35) are favorites vs the (80-35)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (5-6), 3.69 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-2), 5.94 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Chicago Cubs () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 48-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 49-69 ATS.

Cubs vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs O
Nationals U

Cubs vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 60 games (+22.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+18.55 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+17.45 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.85 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 101% ROI)
  • Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)

Nationals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Joey Meneses 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Lane Thomas 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Luke Voit 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Nationals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Joey Meneses 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Lane Thomas 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Luke Voit 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Nationals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Joey Meneses 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Lane Thomas 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Luke Voit 0.5 +125 0.5 -185

Nationals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Drew Smyly 4.5 -165 4.5 +115
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+10.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 away games (+6.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 46 away games (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 away games (+3.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 62 of their last 105 games (+18.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games at home (+3.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 7 games at home (+0.20 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 59-56 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -3.6% ROI).

  • 48-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.25 Units / -13.12% ROI
  • 50-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -10.72% ROI
  • 58-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 2.48% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-69 against the Run Line (-28.6 Units / -19.8% ROI).

  • 39-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -22 Units / -17.99% ROI
  • 59-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 1.41% ROI
  • 52-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -9.49% ROI

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,085/2,447) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (319/665) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 99th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 56% of the time (228/408) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (420/891) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.

Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 15% (4/26) against Cory Abbott this month (3 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (11/41) against Cory Abbott this month (3 games) — 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.

Cory Abbott has allowed an OPS of 1.113 (39 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .703 — third Percentile.

Cory Abbott has walked 10 of 63 batters (16%) this month (3 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Cubs are just 18-99 (.154) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Cubs are 123-6 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Cubs are just 47-54 (.465) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Cubs are just 8-34 (.190) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Nationals are just 39-66 (.371) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 106-16 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Nationals are just 12-70 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 340 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .345.

Cubs hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Nationals have scored first in just 27% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Nationals hitters have just 596 strikeouts in 3,009 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cubs pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .305 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 8.18 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.77.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.94 (468.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.

Nationals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Luis García (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.