- The Padres are -160 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Chicago Cubs (+135) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Friday, June 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Cubs vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 24-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 28-28 ATS.
Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -120 | -160 |
Cubs vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 74.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 48 games (+17.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 away games (+11.45 Units / 164% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.75 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+10.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.65 Units / 127% ROI)
Padres vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Padres vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Jameson Taillon | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+5.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+2.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games (+17.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 30-25 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 6.99% ROI).
- 24-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -13.46% ROI
- 29-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 2.14% ROI
- 25-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -11.36% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 28-28 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -7.05% ROI).
- 26-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.3 Units / -17.83% ROI
- 19-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.65 Units / -32.67% ROI
- 35-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.5 Units / 24.05% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .368 (14-for-38) against Jameson Taillon on sliders this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .229 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (13/76) against Jameson Taillon with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (32/103) against Jameson Taillon this season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 11 of 488 right-handed batters (2%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .231 (6-for-26) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (9/69) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (24/71) against Michael Wacha in two-strike counts this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — ninth Percentile.
26 of Michael Wacha’s 49 strikeouts (53%) have come on changeups this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 14-27 (.341) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Cubs are just 2-21 (.087) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Cubs are just 42-28 (.600) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 5-5 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 22-2 (.917) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Padres are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Padres are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Cubs are batting just .292 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 178 walks in 1,453 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .207 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Padres are batting just .222 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,370 batted balls) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Cubs pitchers have walked 35 of 490 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 503 times this season — fewest in MLB.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 5% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (1,372 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Padres vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Luis GarcÃa (Padres): Oblique, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
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