Cubs vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 03, 2023, 3:34 PM
  • The Padres are -175 favorites vs the Cubs
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Chicago Cubs (+145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-175) on Saturday, June 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Cubs vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Cubs are 25-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 28-29 ATS.

Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -145O 8 -115+145
Padres -1.5 +120U 8 -105-175

Cubs vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 61.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Cubs vs Padres and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 49 games (+18.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+10.45 Units / 131% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.55 Units / 136% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)

Padres vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Austin Nola 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Christopher Morel 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Padres vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
Austin Nola 0.5 -150 0.5 +115
Christopher Morel 0.5 -140 0.5 +105
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -110 0.5 -120
Nico Hoerner 1.5 +180 1.5 -250

Padres vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Austin Nola 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Christopher Morel 0.5 +220 0.5 -300
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +270 0.5 -375

Padres vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yu Darvish 6.5 -150 6.5 +115
Drew Smyly 3.5 -165 3.5 +125
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+3.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 50 games (+18.75 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 31-25 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 8.29% ROI).

  • 25-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -10.94% ROI
  • 29-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.49% ROI
  • 26-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -9.51% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 28-29 against the Run Line (-6.15 Units / -8.31% ROI).

  • 26-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -19.54% ROI
  • 19-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.65 Units / -33.72% ROI
  • 36-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.5 Units / 25.2% ROI

Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 55% of the time (211/387) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (471/945) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (299/660) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (118/231) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

6 of Yu Darvish’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 8th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 89th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 56% of the time (105/186) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 59% of the time (110/186) when behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to May 11st — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 8.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Cubs are just 14-27 (.341) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.

The Cubs are just 11-56 (.164) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Cubs are just 1-97 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.

The Cubs are just 6-11 (.353) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .614.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Padres are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Padres are 23-32 (.418) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.

The Padres are 5-5 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .273.

Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of .809 (579 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .749.

Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Cubs hitters are slugging .462 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .423.

Padres hitters have drawn 179 walks in 1,482 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters have drawn 593 walks in 5,830 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Padres are batting just .207 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Padres hitters have drawn 237 walks in 2,138 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 35 of 499 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 4% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 298 times this season — fewest in MLB.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 5% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (1,396 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
  • José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Nelson Cruz (Padres): Hamstring, D10
  • Luis García (Padres): Oblique, D15
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
  • Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
  • Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Forearm, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.