- The Padres are -175 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Chicago Cubs (+145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-175) on Saturday, June 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Cubs vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 25-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 28-29 ATS.
Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | O 8 -115 | +145 |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | U 8 -105 | -175 |
Cubs vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 61.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 49 games (+18.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+10.45 Units / 131% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.55 Units / 136% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Padres vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Padres vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Padres vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Drew Smyly | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+3.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 50 games (+18.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 31-25 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 8.29% ROI).
- 25-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.3 Units / -10.94% ROI
- 29-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.49% ROI
- 26-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -9.51% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 28-29 against the Run Line (-6.15 Units / -8.31% ROI).
- 26-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -19.54% ROI
- 19-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.65 Units / -33.72% ROI
- 36-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.5 Units / 25.2% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 55% of the time (211/387) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (471/945) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (299/660) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (118/231) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
6 of Yu Darvish’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 8th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 89th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 56% of the time (105/186) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 59% of the time (110/186) when behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to May 11st — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 8.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 14-27 (.341) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Cubs are just 11-56 (.164) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Cubs are just 1-97 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Cubs are just 6-11 (.353) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .614.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Padres are 23-32 (.418) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are just 12-16 (.429) at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Padres are 5-5 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .809 (579 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are slugging .462 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 179 walks in 1,482 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 593 walks in 5,830 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres are batting just .207 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have drawn 237 walks in 2,138 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 35 of 499 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 4% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 298 times this season — fewest in MLB.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 5% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (1,396 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nelson Cruz (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- Luis GarcÃa (Padres): Oblique, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
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