- The Cubs are -110 favorites vs the Padres
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-110) on Sunday, June 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 5:30pm EDT in San Diego.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Cubs vs Padres Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 25-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-29 ATS.
Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | O 9 -115 | -110 |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | U 9 -105 | -110 |
Cubs vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 50 games (+19.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+10.45 Units / 131% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+9.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 107% ROI)
Padres vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Padres vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Ryan Weathers | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 53 games (+7.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 51 games (+19.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+12.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 26% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 31-26 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 6.24% ROI).
- 25-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.3 Units / -12.25% ROI
- 29-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -1.19% ROI
- 27-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -7.74% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 29-29 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -6.67% ROI).
- 27-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -15 Units / -17.94% ROI
- 19-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.7 Units / -34.79% ROI
- 37-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.5 Units / 26.34% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has walked 15 of 63 batters (24%) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .188 (48-for-256) against Marcus Stroman this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 96th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed an OPS of just .539 (283 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .701 — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .277 (71 Total Bases / 256 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has a strike rate of just 60% (273/453) against right-handed batters this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has a strikeout rate of just 16% (8 SO in 50 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 33% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (49/227) against Ryan Weathers this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has allowed three-ball counts to 26% of batters they faced (28/108 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 19% — third Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 14-27 (.341) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Cubs are just 2-16 (.111) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Cubs are just 1-98 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 5-5 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Padres are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Padres are 23-32 (.418) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Padres are just 24-2 (.923) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters have been successful in 100% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Cubs hitters have drawn 162 walks in 1,572 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .207 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have drawn 179 walks in 1,482 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .220 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Padres are batting just .214 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 35 of 499 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 5% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,390 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Cubs pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 518 times this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres pitchers have won 35% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nelson Cruz (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- Luis GarcÃa (Padres): Oblique, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
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