- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Padres starting pitcher: Julio Teheran, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Chicago Cubs (+115) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EST in Peoria.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Cubs vs Padres Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Cubs are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 4-2 ATS.
Cubs vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | O 11 -120 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | U 11 +100 | -135 |
Cubs vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 62.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games (+4.05 Units / 135% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alfonso Rivas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Madrigal has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Matthew Batten has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.75 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games at home (+15.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 2-2 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -2% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 17.24% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -23.21% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 16.67% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 4-2 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 26.49% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.71% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -3.7% ROI
- 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -1.55% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele located 43% of his pitches inside (218/512) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.
Justin Steele threw fastballs 71% of the time (364/512) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .137 (23-for-168) against Justin Steele’s curve and slider last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 99th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (1,513/2,136) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Padres batted just .230 at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
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