Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 22, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Phillies (49-43) are -135 favorites vs the Cubs (35-57)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (3-6), 4.15 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (5-3), 4.34 ERA
  • Watch the game on Apple TV+

The Chicago Cubs (+110) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Friday, July 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 35-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-43 ATS.

Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -175O 9 -105+110
Phillies -1.5 +145U 9 -115-135

Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s matchup with 68.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+14.85 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+13.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 away games (+10.20 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 41 games (+15.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)

Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Matt Vierling 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Didi Gregorius 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Matt Vierling 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Matt Vierling 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Gibson 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Justin Steele 5.5 +120 5.5 -165
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 52 of their last 91 games (+12.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 65 games (+6.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 away games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+2.85 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 42 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.65 Units / 20% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 46-46 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -6.47% ROI).

  • 35-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.65 Units / -18.3% ROI
  • 42-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -7.29% ROI
  • 45-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -1.04% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-43 against the Run Line (+6.65 Units / 5.92% ROI).

  • 49-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -1.3% ROI
  • 47-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.1% ROI
  • 43-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -8.49% ROI

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (160/360) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (22/57) against Justin Steele with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Justin Steele has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.9 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (151 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 85.4

Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (1,220/1,715) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 6% (3 SO in 53 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (229/405) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (21/106) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 13th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (193/577) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Cubs are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Cubs are just 11-45 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Cubs are just 4-25 (.138) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Cubs are just 7-10 (.412) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-32 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Phillies are 9-31 (.225) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Phillies are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Cubs have won just 48% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 44 double plays in 297 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .635 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

The Cubs are batting .386 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Phillies hitters are slugging .510 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .441.

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .332 (994 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Phillies hitters have put 39% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 54% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 910 of 9,756 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed a run just 23% of the time after an opposing score this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 1.17 (54.0 IP) against division opponents this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.