- The Cubs are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Chicago Cubs (-120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) on Friday, August 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 67-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 63-64 ATS.
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -120 | -120 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -165 | U 9 +100 | +100 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Cubs vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 37 of his last 49 games (+22.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+20.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 50 games (+19.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+18.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Mike Tauchman has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+16.55 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.35 Units / 92% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.35 Units / 67% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 28 games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 31 games (+17.84 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+9.24 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games (+8.72 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.69 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 100 games (+12.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+7.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.98 Units / 32% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 65-62 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -1.17% ROI).
- 67-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 1.82% ROI
- 67-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.8 Units / 4.87% ROI
- 54-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.35 Units / -14.04% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 63-64 against the Run Line (-16.7 Units / -10% ROI).
- 57-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 0.94% ROI
- 68-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.1 Units / 7.29% ROI
- 53-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.25 Units / -15.32% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks allowed a batting average of just .172 vs right-handed batters (sixth best)– 91st Percentile and .350 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 16th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.1 MPH on fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.2 MPH (320 batted balls) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 89.3 — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has located his pitches away 72% of the time (581/808) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller allowed a batting average of .346 vs right-handed batters (sixth worst)– 10th Percentile and just .150 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (eighth best among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 21% (107/520) against Mitch Keller this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 14th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 67% (528/783) in two strike counts this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (17/71) against Mitch Keller on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are 41-23 (.641) after a win as favorites since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Cubs were just 19-11 (.633) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cubs are just 26-31 (.456) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Cubs are 17-13 (.567) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 8-17 (.320) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 16-32 (.333) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Pirates are just 98-54 (.645) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Pirates are just 7-15 (.318) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters have been successful in 89% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .417 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .339 (2,461 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,153 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
The Cubs have won 42% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed the 26th hardest ball in play hit (118.1 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 116.5).
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 470 of 4,949 batters (10%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,054 of 11,176 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Rib, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
Bet now on Cubs vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
