- The Cubs are -125 favorites vs the Pirates
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Chicago Cubs (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Sunday, August 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 68-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 64-65 ATS.
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -120 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 +100 | +105 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 55.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+20.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+19.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Mike Tauchman has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+16.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.30 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Palacios has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+11.25 Units / 65% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Palacios has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.90 Units / 73% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 30 games (+10.35 Units / 34% ROI)
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Javier Assad | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Javier Assad | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.84 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.09 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 games (+8.67 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 102 games (+12.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+3.97 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 66-63 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -1% ROI).
- 68-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 1.7% ROI
- 68-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 4.69% ROI
- 55-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.5 Units / -13.93% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 64-65 against the Run Line (-17.15 Units / -10.09% ROI).
- 58-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 0.93% ROI
- 69-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.95 Units / 7.07% ROI
- 54-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.4 Units / -15.18% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javier Assad has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 44% (113/257) of the time this season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery had a strike rate of just 62% (531/850) in two strike counts in 2022 — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — eighth Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery attempted to pick off a runner at second base 8 timesin 2022 — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Javier Assad has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (108/209) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander walked 29 of 666 batters (4%) in 2022 — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents batted just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander in 2022 — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are 59-4 (.937) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Cubs are just 27-31 (.466) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Cubs are 36-7 (.837) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Cubs are just 3-126 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 16-32 (.333) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Pirates are just 14-133 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Pirates are just 7-140 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Pirates are just 99-54 (.647) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .317 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters have been successful in 89% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs hitters have 42 extra-base hits out of 143 total hits (just 29%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .228 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .669 (3,366 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,223 batted balls) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Cubs pitchers have walked 81 of 1,144 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .219 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .236 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,060 of 11,251 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 55% of their games this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 2 of 63 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 55 of 542 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Fulmer (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Rib, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
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