- The Cubs are -140 favorites vs the Pirates
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Pirates starting pitcher: Osvaldo Bido
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Chicago Cubs (-140) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Monday, June 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 33-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 34-36 ATS.
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +115 | O 9 -105 | -140 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 9 -115 | +115 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 48 games (+22.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 24 away games (+17.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 32 games (+10.00 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+9.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Osvaldo Bido | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.95 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 67 games (+5.50 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 42 games (+17.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 28 games (+3.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 67 games (+2.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 28 games at home (+2.35 Units / 6% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 38-33 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 3.12% ROI).
- 33-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -7.03% ROI
- 35-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -3.25% ROI
- 34-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.35 Units / -5.58% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 34-36 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -10.3% ROI).
- 34-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.19% ROI
- 34-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -1.42% ROI
- 32-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -6.44% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 55% of the time (266/488) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (121/263) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (613/1,213) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 62% of the time (210/339) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Osvaldo Bido has limited playing time.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 28-13 (.683) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Cubs are just 17-27 (.386) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Cubs are just 0-32 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Cubs are just 13-21 (.382) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are 16-3 (.842) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Pirates are just 4-112 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 9-105 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .126.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.12 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .412 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.
The Cubs are batting just .282 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .302 (5,844 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Pirates are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 21% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .684 (4,177 PA’s) at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 42 of 628 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 60 of 615 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,446 of 15,046 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 32 of 231 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 56 of 479 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Forearm, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Wrist, D15
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, D10
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