Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 21, 2022, 10:44 AM
  • The Pirates (27-39) are -155 favorites vs the Cubs (25-42)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Swarmer (1-2), 5.22 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (1-1), 3.06 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Chicago Cubs (+130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).

The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 25-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 29-37 ATS.

Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -155O 9 -105+130
Pirates -1.5 +130U 9 -115-155

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 63.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.10 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.70 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in his last 13 games at home (+13.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.85 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games at home (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+9.85 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
    Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
    Hoy Park 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
    Jack Suwinski 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
    Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

    Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
    Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
    Hoy Park 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
    Jack Suwinski 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
    Ke'Bryan Hayes 1.5 +165 1.5 -250

    Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
    Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
    Hoy Park 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
    Jack Suwinski 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
    Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +160 0.5 -250

    Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Matt Swarmer 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
    Roansy Contreras 5.5 +100 5.5 -145
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+12.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 57 games (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 65 games (+4.60 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 25 games (+4.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 22 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 33-34 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -8.67% ROI).

    • 25-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -20.99% ROI
    • 33-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -2 Units / -2.7% ROI
    • 32-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -5.51% ROI

    Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 29-37 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -14.99% ROI).

    • 27-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -1.15% ROI
    • 27-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -13.88% ROI
    • 34-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 5.37% ROI

    Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 62% (18/29) against Matt Swarmer — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.

    Matt Swarmer has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to May 30th — Rony Garcia has the longest active streak at 7.

    The hardest ball hit off of Matt Swarmer was 119.8 MPH — hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.6

    Opponents batting in the heart of the order are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Matt Swarmer — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.

    Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (5/37) against Roansy Contreras on breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (78/261) against Roansy Contreras this season — 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.

    Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (106/301) against Roansy Contreras this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 95th Percentile.

    Roansy Contreras has an average fastball velocity of 96.5 MPH this season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 93.3 — 94th Percentile.

    Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

    The Cubs are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.

    The Cubs are just 2-20 (.091) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

    The Cubs are just 1-36 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .073.

    The Cubs are just 7-32 (.179) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

    Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

    The Pirates are just 72-18 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

    The Pirates are just 18-3 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.

    The Pirates are just 2-32 (.059) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.

    The Pirates are just 26-33 (.441) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

    Cubs hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 264 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    The Cubs are batting just .104 with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

    The Cubs have won just 58% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

    Cubs hitters have 570 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.

    Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,500 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

    Pirates hitters are slugging just .361 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

    Pirates hitters are slugging just .226 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.

    The Cubs have allowed 8.25 runs per game (99/12) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.

    The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

    The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

    Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

    Pirates pitchers have walked 251 of 2,493 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Pirates pitchers have walked 192 of 1,977 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Pirates pitchers have walked 53 of 578 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Pirates pitchers have walked 850 of 8,673 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D10
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.