- The Pirates (27-39) are -155 favorites vs the Cubs (25-42)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Swarmer (1-2), 5.22 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (1-1), 3.06 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Chicago Cubs (+130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 25-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 29-37 ATS.
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -105 | +130 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +130 | U 9 -115 | -155 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Hoy Park | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Hoy Park | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Hoy Park | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Swarmer | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -165 |
| Roansy Contreras | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 33-34 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -8.67% ROI).
- 25-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -20.99% ROI
- 33-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -2 Units / -2.7% ROI
- 32-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -5.51% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 29-37 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -14.99% ROI).
- 27-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -1.15% ROI
- 27-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -13.88% ROI
- 34-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 5.37% ROI
Matthew Swarmer: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 62% (18/29) against Matt Swarmer — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.
Matt Swarmer has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to May 30th — Rony Garcia has the longest active streak at 7.
The hardest ball hit off of Matt Swarmer was 119.8 MPH — hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.6
Opponents batting in the heart of the order are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Matt Swarmer — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (5/37) against Roansy Contreras on breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (78/261) against Roansy Contreras this season — 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (106/301) against Roansy Contreras this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 95th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has an average fastball velocity of 96.5 MPH this season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 93.3 — 94th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Cubs are just 2-20 (.091) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Cubs are just 1-36 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .073.
The Cubs are just 7-32 (.179) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 72-18 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Pirates are just 18-3 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Pirates are just 2-32 (.059) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Pirates are just 26-33 (.441) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 264 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting just .104 with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Cubs have won just 58% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Cubs hitters have 570 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .206 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,500 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .361 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .226 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs have allowed 8.25 runs per game (99/12) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 251 of 2,493 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 192 of 1,977 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 53 of 578 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 850 of 8,673 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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