Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 23, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (42-25) are favorites vs the (42-25)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (2-5), 4.27 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: José Quintana (1-4), 3.65 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Chicago Cubs () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Thursday, June 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 26-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 30-38 ATS.

Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs O
Pirates U

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s matchup with 55.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+7.75 Units / 115% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 59% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+4.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Hoy Jun Park has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 29% ROI)

Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Diego Castillo 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Michael Chavis 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Diego Castillo 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Ke'Bryan Hayes 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Michael Chavis 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Diego Castillo 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Michael Chavis 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Quintana 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
Justin Steele 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 68 games (+14.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+6.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+1.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 67 games (+6.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 59 games (+6.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 games (+3.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 24 games (+3.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.60 Units / 29% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 34-35 against the Run Line (-8.05 Units / -8.86% ROI).

  • 26-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -20.34% ROI
  • 34-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -2.69% ROI
  • 33-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.1 Units / -5.42% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 30-38 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -14.56% ROI).

  • 28-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -1.11% ROI
  • 28-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.05 Units / -13.54% ROI
  • 35-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 5.15% ROI

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (117/260) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 99th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (312/749) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 81% of the time (395/487) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has walked 22 of 192 right-handed batters (12%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

José Quintana: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 50% (222/446) of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Jose Quintana has allowed a slugging percentage of .553 (84 Total Bases / 152 ABs) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: .347 — 0 Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 54% (216/400) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Jose Quintana has allowed an OBP of .367 (166 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: .275 — second Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cubs are just 2-21 (.087) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.

The Cubs are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.

The Cubs are just 13-25 (.342) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Cubs are just 7-33 (.175) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Pirates are just 73-18 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

The Pirates are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.

The Pirates are just 11-35 (.239) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Pirates are just 19-86 (.181) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 264 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Cubs hitters have 1,622 strikeouts in 6,283 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters have 2,044 strikeouts in 7,911 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Pirates are batting just .205 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .227 (4,422 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .301 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Cubs have won just 9% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Cubs pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Cubs have won just 8% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 194 of 1,995 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 253 of 2,511 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 856 of 8,755 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (961.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): COVID-19, D10
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Josh VanMeter (Pirates): Finger, D10
  • Zachary Thompson (Pirates): Forearm, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (Pirates): COVID-19, D15
  • Kevin Newman (Pirates): Groin, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Thumb, D60
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Hamstring, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Greg Allen (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.