- The Pirates (55-95) are -120 favorites vs the Cubs (65-85)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad (1-2), 3.85 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (3-9), 6.07 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Chicago Cubs (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 64-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 75-73 ATS.
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 51 games at home (+12.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 27 games at home (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 51 games at home (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+7.95 Units / 66% ROI)
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cal Mitchell | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryse Wilson | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +105 |
| Javier Assad | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+17.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+10.30 Units / 147% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 33% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games (+3.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 72-75 against the Run Line (-14.55 Units / -7.75% ROI).
- 64-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -7.88% ROI
- 60-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.4 Units / -14.39% ROI
- 76-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.1 Units / 6.17% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-73 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -3.16% ROI).
- 55-93 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.25 Units / -8.67% ROI
- 66-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -8.37% ROI
- 73-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.27% ROI
Javier Assad: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 44% of Javier Assad’s pitches (118/267) this month (4 games) — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 49% — seventh Percentile.
The hardest ball hit off of Javier Assad was just 103.8 MPH — 6th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.0
Javier Assad has walked 4 of 36 right-handed batters (11%) this month (4 games) — tied for 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 10th Percentile.
Javier Assad has walked 8 of 64 batters (12%) this month (4 games) — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.
Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .538 (184 Total Bases / 342 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .387 — third Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .620 (93 Total Bases / 150 ABs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .402 — 0 Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 15% (113 SO in 766 PAs) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has struck out just 14% (53/385) of left-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are 138-8 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 92-25 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Pirates are just 17-82 (.172) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 2-76 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 46-8 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 377 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting just .155 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters are slugging .619 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
The Cubs are batting .370 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (3,488 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .446 (6,034 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,101 of 11,938 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 84 of 776 batters (11%) this month (20 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,147 of 11,901 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 296 of 3,225 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 237 of 2,709 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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