Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 23, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Pirates (55-95) are -120 favorites vs the Cubs (65-85)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad (1-2), 3.85 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Bryse Wilson (3-9), 6.07 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Chicago Cubs (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 64-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 75-73 ATS.

Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -200O 8 -105+100
Pirates -1.5 +165U 8 -115-120

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 51 games at home (+12.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 27 games at home (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 51 games at home (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+7.95 Units / 66% ROI)

Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Jason Delay 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Cal Mitchell 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jack Suwinski 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jason Delay 0.5 -110 0.5 -130

Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Jack Suwinski 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jason Delay 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryse Wilson 3.5 -145 3.5 +105
Javier Assad 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+17.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+10.30 Units / 147% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games (+3.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 72-75 against the Run Line (-14.55 Units / -7.75% ROI).

  • 64-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -7.88% ROI
  • 60-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.4 Units / -14.39% ROI
  • 76-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.1 Units / 6.17% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-73 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -3.16% ROI).

  • 55-93 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.25 Units / -8.67% ROI
  • 66-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -8.37% ROI
  • 73-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.27% ROI

Hitters have swung at 44% of Javier Assad’s pitches (118/267) this month (4 games) — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 49% — seventh Percentile.

The hardest ball hit off of Javier Assad was just 103.8 MPH — 6th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.0

Javier Assad has walked 4 of 36 right-handed batters (11%) this month (4 games) — tied for 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 10th Percentile.

Javier Assad has walked 8 of 64 batters (12%) this month (4 games) — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.

Bryse Wilson: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .538 (184 Total Bases / 342 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .387 — third Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .620 (93 Total Bases / 150 ABs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .402 — 0 Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 15% (113 SO in 766 PAs) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Bryse Wilson has struck out just 14% (53/385) of left-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Cubs are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are 138-8 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Pirates are just 92-25 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Pirates are just 17-82 (.172) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 2-76 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 46-8 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 377 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs are batting just .155 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters are slugging .619 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

The Cubs are batting .370 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (3,488 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .446 (6,034 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.

The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,101 of 11,938 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 84 of 776 batters (11%) this month (20 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,147 of 11,901 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 296 of 3,225 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 237 of 2,709 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.